Weather: Katrina-- 1 Year later: what have we learned?

[tucsoncoyote]

It's been one year since Katrina happened... and still I'm scratching my head and wondering what went wrong with this one event.:confused:

It's funny that I'm writing this.. because at this very moment, we have Ernesto in the Central Caribbean firing up as a tropical storm. (See the Official Hurricane thread (http://forums.toonzone.net/showthread.php?t=167758)for the news).

But I was just reading in the Miami Hearld Page (http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15353812.htm)and I looked back over this historical event and it just baffles me that human ignorance and lack of planning could have prevented a lot of death (1,500 deaths in all )and destruction to the tune of 30 billion Dollars.

and the more I look at this disaster, the more I see something distrubing.. Forecasters knew Katrina was coming. The models suggested that Katrina was going to hit very close to New Orleans some 2-3 days before landfall. they urged the Emergency Management services in New Orleans to order up a mandatory evacuation up to 32 hours before the storm actually made landfall...

Yet the official order to evacuate didn't come till just some 19 hours before the actual storm did make landfall (and just 5 hours before the storm's outer bands started to impact the coast.)

So why the 13 hour delay? What made New Orleans Emergency Services and offices hesitate? was it because of the potential fiscal impact that caused New Orleans government to hold off from ordering this mandatory evacuation? or was there something else hidden from view that was going on.

They had a 32 hour window of Opporitunity to evacuate the entire city.. they even had a plan in place.. yet it failed miserably.

Then there is the countless loss of Property.. Studies and reports on the Levee systems in that area suggested that for the time that the levees could take a hit by a Major (Category 3) storm and they could survive.. yet for 3 billion dollars these levees could have been strengthened so they could survive a category 5 (Winds over 155 mph and storm surges over 20 feet) storm. Yet for years, no work was ever done...)

and then we have to look at this: Why the fact that the plan was there, the Resources were there. and yet.. Katrina turned New Orleans into "the New Atlantis"? In fact some folks call Katrina the "Galveston Hurricane" of the 21st Century"

I mean the more i look upon this event.. the more I just shake my head..

what exactly did go wrong?

and what now have we (as Americans and as humanity in general) have learned from this disaster..

After all we got this season to deal with.. We have Ernesto out there in the Caribbean spinning up.. and the question that comes to my mind is...

Could it happen again? (It's not a matter of if.. but rather... when...)

After all this week on a lot of cable channels they are talking about last year's disaster...

But could it happen again?

Your thoughts on this?

:coyote:

[Super Leviathan]

It absolutely could happen again, but i''m hopnig and praying that doesn't

Since i live in Texas (Houston to be specific), I was very, very concerned about Rita last year, since my family wasn't able to evacuate (the actual hurricane didn't cause my area too much damage, but i'm still fearful of another Major hurricane hitting Texas and if 2005 and 2006 have set a precdent for atroicous hurricane seasons, brutal heat waves, and other weather issues, because of global warming or whatever).

Recently, my area has been seeing some inclement weather and it's assoicated conditions (rainfall, blackouts, etc.), so things don't look good for this year.

And if you think Gas prices are high now, imagine what they'll be if another Category 3-or-up hurricane hits the South; The oil industry couldn't take that kind of punishment two years in succession.

[mookie75]

Of course it could happen again. Then again, the sun could burn out, a giant asteroid could collide with the planet, or a large chunk of the west coast could slide into the ocean as well (just to name a few possible disasters). The real question is this: Are you doing yourself or anyone else any good by sitting there and fretting about all the potential catastrophies this world has to offer? We get our fair share of tornadoes here in Minnesota. Every so often one will drop in just the right spot and devastate some small town. It's tragic to be sure, but I don't sit here every tornado season and wonder if the next one will rip through my hometown or the town my parents live in. :shrug:

As for the evacuation and the response of emergency crews afterward, it's really easy to call the shots after the fact, but I think the press was a little too hard on all involved. Before the storm hit many people in the area probably felt they could ride it out as they undoubtedly had before. And afterward, I feel 13 hours isn't too horrible of a time frame for them to assess the situation, gather what they needed, and begin to mobilize. Think about how little you get done at work some days and that's an 8 hour time frame right there....

[sun]

..Yes, this could happen again..Little has been done to solve the difficulties that caused the inadequate reaction to this disaster.
...People are still living in trailers..There is still much to be cleaned up, and rebuilt... With that still on the burner, if even a minor category 1 came through, there would more of the same.
..Yesterday, the Emergancy Room Doctors from New Orleans said that they are unprepared to even deal with a major bus accident..That says it all.:(

[tucsoncoyote]

..Yes, this could happen again..Little has been done to solve the difficulties that caused the inadequate reaction to this disaster.
...People are still living in trailers..There is still much to be cleaned up, and rebuilt... With that still on the burner, if even a minor category 1 came through, there would more of the same.
..Yesterday, the Emergancy Room Doctors from New Orleans said that they are unprepared to even deal with a major bus accident..That says it all.:(

Well Oldtoonguy, that's rather worrisome that they're not prepared for a bus accident, let alone another hurricane. and in fact right now I'm going to put up Ernesto's track here as well (after all if you look out to the 5 day forecast, well one of the areas that could get hit.. is in fact .. New Orleans!

But here's the map for Ernesto:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5+gif/025435W_sm.gif



As of right now, this storm (Ernesto that is), is being forecast up to five days out, to be able to hit an area from the Port Arthur Area, to that of New Orleans and Mobile.. and it's this last part we don't really know much about. (As the Computer (Programming) Modules, are all in disagreement this time around.

But as for Katrina on the other hand, well all the models of the storm, proved that they were all in joint concurrence up to five days in advance that New Orleans was the target.

but anyway here we have another similar setup, it's time to start watching this storm and see where it goes.

Nuff said

:coyote:

[One Radical Dude]

I don't know what our politicians have learned (except to blame parties or certain people for what happened, and worry more about other things than to get their jobs done), but hopefully, there are people that have learned from the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. After Katrina, we had to worry about Rita. Rita spared the most populous areas and lost strength, which likely left some Rita evacuees to wonder "why did we evacuate?" Will those people stay home next time and pay dearly?

I know we still have a long way to until the season is over, but this season doesn't look like it's going to be the record-breaking year that occurred in 2005. There is a chance that New Orleans could be impacted by Ernesto, but it's way too early to tell.

[Alex Toon]

Let me speak as a Katrina survivor.
We're not that prepared for another hurricane. But if New Orleans dies, a part of us all dies.

What would America be without Mardi Gras, daiquiris, poker, the French Quarter, Ignatius Railey, or the streetcar named Desire? Something obvious would be missing.

Something morbidly ironic: Florida's been hit more than its fair share of hurricanes, yet it's doing fine. New Orleans just has one and we're in deep.:(

[Dr. OneWay]

I don't know what there is too learn. Build more levees to keep the water out? Use less gas pollution to cut down on global warming? Really, we must be reasonable with ourselves. There's nothing to learn other than to work faster to get more environmental-safe cars, and building higher levees across the coast.

[FireStarterLE]

i know what i've learned by watching the news during the months following, if you see FEMA coming head for the hills. Those people need the "Official Disaster" handbook for every situation.

What people should have learned is to take every hurricane warning more seriously. If (both top ranking and regular citizens) acted when the hurricane was gaining strength than i'm guessing alot more people may have survived and been able to get away safely.

They need to have better ways of getting people out of the potentially affected areas, how to handle that many people when they get there and how to maintain that many people until the "All Clear" signal is given.

*on Ernesto, it needs to get into the Gulf and drift east. We dont need a bad hurricane but we sure could use the rain. (probably wouldnt make it all the way out west to help with the fires there, so this is the next best place)

[tucsoncoyote]

What people should have learned is to take every hurricane warning more seriously. If (both top ranking and regular citizens) acted when the hurricane was gaining strength than i'm guessing alot more people may have survived and been able to get away safely.

They need to have better ways of getting people out of the potentially affected areas, how to handle that many people when they get there and how to maintain that many people until the "All Clear" signal is given.

I think you make a very valid point here, Achilles' Heel, and i think that's what people need to do.. take every hurricane Seriously as if it was going to affect them. See Hurricanes (and Tornadoes) are in fact two of nature's forces that can be detected either minutes (for Tornadoes) or Days (for Hurricanes) in Advance.

Florida I think learned their lesson well from the 4 hurricanes that hit in 2004, and last year as well with Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. I think for Floridians they figure that if there's a storm coming, the prepare and advise people to get out of the path of the storm. so for Floridians in just 2 years they've learned to take every Hurricane Very seriously.

But it's the other states that I'm worried aobut Everyone from Texas to Maine that lives along the coast is heavily affected by each and every storm and it doesn't matter if it's a Category 1, Category 3, or even a Category 5 storm. All storms must be taken very seriously.

Now in terms of other disasters, Such as earthquakes and volcanoes, those events are very unpredictable.. you really don't know when they will happen (it's not a matter of If but rather a matter of when. I've not only been monitoring hurricanes in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, but I've been monitoriing Earthquakes in the US as well. California is a vulnerable spot as is Alaska and even places along the Pacific Northwest are vulnerable to Not only Earthquakes but also Tsunamis.

In short most people don't plan to fail but they do fail to plan for each contingency that occurs.. be it Tornaod, Hurricane, Tsunami, Earthquake, and even volcanic events.

but if People can learn from the past, perhaps they can in fact protect themselves from the future.. after all It's not a matter of "if" it's going to happen. it's always a matter of "When"

:coyote:

[Lord Dalek]

Diddly squat.

[tucsoncoyote]

Diddly squat.

Well then Can I ask why you say we've learned nothing from this? After all is it that humans are complacent? Is it the fact that people tend to not take hurricane warnings seriously enough?

I mean if we learned diddly squat, then it sounds like you're saying that we'll never learn from these disasters or any future disasters.. after all you're condeming humanity and proving my point about why people die in disasters like this.. after all people don't have to die.. they just have to learn how to survive and cope in a crisis or disaster.

:coyote:

[Rook]

Well then Can I ask why you say we've learned nothing from this? After all is it that humans are complacent? Is it the fact that people tend to not take hurricane warnings seriously enough?

I mean if we learned diddly squat, then it sounds like you're saying that we'll never learn from these disasters or any future disasters.. after all you're condeming humanity and proving my point about why people die in disasters like this.. after all people don't have to die.. they just have to learn how to survive and cope in a crisis or disaster.

:coyote:

its not that they dont take it seriously, its more about underestimating Nature's ability to knock down a wall of wood and cement with just water.

We tend to act on such things after the disaster has occured... which pretty much follows every major disaster, natural or manmade since the early 1900s. Or somewhere between the civil war and the titantic...

[tucsoncoyote]

its not that they dont take it seriously, its more about underestimating Nature's ability to knock down a wall of wood and cement with just water.

We tend to act on such things after the disaster has occured... which pretty much follows every major disaster, natural or manmade since the early 1900s. Or somewhere between the civil war and the titantic...

Well last night on the History channel they talked about the "Long Island Express" of 1938 and it seems that in the case of what they call "New England Hurricanes, it seems a lot of people tend to forget that between 1938 and 1953 there were no major hurricanes that hit the New England Coast.. and that the last time you had 3 storms hit that area was in 1953 Carol, Edna, and Hilda..

but that's over 50 years ago.. in that time a lot of people have become what I call "Complacent" they don't think "it can happen to them." The same goes of a lot of people (with the exception of Florida) who don't take hurricanes Seriously.. Look at last year.. This is what I am talking about.. Some folks I can understand not wanting to move because they are afraid of looters or other stuff, but still others who were sick and Elderly needed to be moved to higher and safer ground. but no one helped them.

I think Katrina and all the other hurricanes in the last 2 years should serve as a warning.. just like the Loma Prieta Earthquake did for San Francisco in 1989 and Northridge in 1994.. It can happen again.. without warnning or without notice. and if you're complacent? Well then you might as well write out your death certificate and sew it onto your pants.. cause believe me, Complacency kills.

:coyote:

[kirschy]

Something morbidly ironic: Florida's been hit more than its fair share of hurricanes, yet it's doing fine. New Orleans just has one and we're in deep.:(
That's because Florida's above sea-level, unlike New Orleans, so flooding is less severe. They've also had plenty of experience rebuilding and have building codes that take the fact that Florida is frequently a target of hurricanes into consideration.

[Wanted]

I've learned that American entertainment has a thing for anniversaries of tragic events. "One year later", just about every network has a Katrina special ready to air, or every radio show has a debate lined up.

And, just about every time an "event" like this transpires, they're really quick to pull out the Donate to Charity ads. Why not run them year-round (as if the cause isn't just)?

[tucsoncoyote]

That's because Florida's above sea-level, unlike New Orleans, so flooding is less severe. They've also had plenty of experience rebuilding and have building codes that take the fact that Florida is frequently a target of hurricanes into consideration.

That's very True Kirschy and in fact it's funny... Homeowners can for the price of a small amount (Say less then 2000 bucks) can make their house rooves very strong just by installing a 10 dollar piece of metal called a "Hurricame clip" (these clips are in fact able to make the roof of any house (when Installed correctly) any hurricane up to a Category 3 storm (115-135 mph sustained winds) and in fact this little investment a lot of times is required in Florida..(Whether or not the other states along the gulf coast use them is really all up to the home owner.. but still a small investment of a few hundred to a couple of thousand dollars can actually save your house from major damage ...

I've learned that American entertainment has a thing for anniversaries of tragic events. "One year later", just about every network has a Katrina special ready to air, or every radio show has a debate lined up.

And, just about every time an "event" like this transpires, they're really quick to pull out the Donate to Charity ads. Why not run them year-round (as if the cause isn't just)?

Well you know beta that we are in fact coming up on the 5th anniversary of the Attacks on 9/11.. my attitude is that entertainment channels are just hypiing an event that really changed the way we look at things (Just Like Katrina made people look at New Orleans Differently.. In fact I once watched a special called "Supervolcano" and i think that a lot of people look at things differently after any disaster occurs be it hurricanes terrorist attacks, or man made disasters. It's though a thing everyone has to learn. that if you fail to learn from history, you're bound to repeat it.

:coyote:

[Alex Toon]

This essay I wrote for my English class reflecting the hurricane:

Soon, it will have been one year since "The Thing" reaked havoc on my fair city of New Orleans. The White House had received information about the unstable levees,the 17th St. Canal, and the Industrial Canal that would soon break and spread floodwaters across the city.

Yet FEMA and the Bush administration ignored these obvious red flags, and I, along with many other people, suffered. Even though my house only had eleven inches of rainwater, I was unfortunately one of the lucky ones.

Look at my neighboring town of Chalmette,the town that received so much coverage on television. One year later, the area looks the same as it did after the water was drained. The area is virtually a wasteland, and might not ever return to its pre-hurricane state.

The horrifying images from the Superdome after the levees broke will haunt my memories forever. I was safe in a Texas hotel, but I still feel empathy for the victims that lost everything. Everyone, whether black or white,rich or poor, East Coast,West Coast or Gulf Coast, lost a part of them when the hurricane struck.

In March, Reverend Billy Graham visited the New Orleans Arena to revive hope in our city. He brought us one message that we all should remember: love thy neighbor as thysel, for we are our brother's keeper. No matter what social class, religion, or ethnicity, one main thing bonds us all: we are all humans. It's our duty to help out the less fortunate and love.

But as many victims had to start out anew, so must our officials. We need people with commitment to our city and change our old ways. Our behaviors are not permanent, and everyone deserves a second chance.

Remember, New Orleans is like no other city: when a community member dies, we do not mourn them;but rather, we celebrate everything good about them. When the levees broke, people in the French Quarter were ready for whatever came their way,drinking and having fun in the face of disaster.

The survivors manifest what we love about New Orleans: we are the crescent city, truly a twinkle of hope in the sky of despair. Like the fabled Pandora's Box, when all the evils escaped into the world, only one attribute remained: hope.


My grandfather's generation had WWII, my dad had Vietnam, but now I, a high school kid, have my own horrific experience: surviving Katrina. :crying:

New Orleans:Laissez les bons temps rouler- again!;)[/URL][URL="http://www.cajunculture.com/Other/laissez.htm"] (http://www.cajunculture.com/Other/laissez.htm)

[kirschy]

This is in response to Alex Toon's comments in his essay. I've been trying to think of a way to say this without it sounding mean, but frankly I don't think that's possible even though that's not my intent.

Alex Toon, you're not being fair to the Bush Administration. Its not their fault New Orlean's levies were in bad shape. Flood control/levee maintenance is a local responsibility. The Army Corps. of Engineers helps out, and the National government may supply funds, but they aren't responsible for building or maintaining levees. Its also not the responsibility of the national government to order the evacuation of a city or state's coastline/flood zone. So regardless of what the Bush administration knew or didn't know, they can't be blamed for faults in New Orleans levees or not evacuating the population of New Orleans.

And before someone brings up the issue of FEMA not getting relief supplies into the area to allieviate the suffering of survivors fast enough, how were they supposed to do that? The National Guard is tasked with responding to natural disasters, but it takes time to mobilize and organize the guard. And on top of that the roads/transportation infrastructure was heavily damaged which ruled out rapidly deploying and delivering supplies via trucks or fixed wing aircraft. I suppose FEMA could have used Navy ships, but there are no major assets (Marine amphibious groups/ carrier battle groups) pre-positioned/based in that area so getting those units into position would have taken several days to a week (or more) depending on where the nearest units were and how quickly they were able to redeploy.

Finally this is in response to your comments about rebuilding New Orleans. I have to say that I think anyone who lives below sea-level in an area frequented by hurricanes/typhoons is asking for trouble. Those areas of New Orleans that are below sea-level probably shouldn't be rebuilt since its only a matter of time before another storm hits them and inundates them again. That's not intended to be mean or cruel. Its just common sense, like not living in the blast zone of Mount St. Helens.

[tucsoncoyote]

This is in response to Alex Toon's comments in his essay. I've been trying to think of a way to say this without it sounding mean, but frankly I don't think that's possible even though that's not my intent.

Alex Toon, you're not being fair to the Bush Administration. Its not their fault New Orlean's levies were in bad shape. Flood control/levee maintenance is a local responsibility. The Army Corps. of Engineers helps out, and the National government may supply funds, but they aren't responsible for building or maintaining levees. Its also not the responsibility of the national government to order the evacuation of a city or state's coastline/flood zone. So regardless of what the Bush administration knew or didn't know, they can't be blamed for faults in New Orleans levees or not evacuating the population of New Orleans.

And before someone brings up the issue of FEMA not getting relief supplies into the area to allieviate the suffering of survivors fast enough, how were they supposed to do that? The National Guard is tasked with responding to natural disasters, but it takes time to mobilize and organize the guard. And on top of that the roads/transportation infrastructure was heavily damaged which ruled out rapidly deploying and delivering supplies via trucks or fixed wing aircraft. I suppose FEMA could have used Navy ships, but there are no major assets (Marine amphibious groups/ carrier battle groups) pre-positioned/based in that area so getting those units into position would have taken several days to a week (or more) depending on where the nearest units were and how quickly they were able to redeploy.

Finally this is in response to your comments about rebuilding New Orleans. I have to say that I think anyone who lives below sea-level in an area frequented by hurricanes/typhoons is asking for trouble. Those areas of New Orleans that are below sea-level probably shouldn't be rebuilt since its only a matter of time before another storm hits them and inundates them again. That's not intended to be mean or cruel. Its just common sense, like not living in the blast zone of Mount St. Helens.

That's very true Kirschy, and in fact there is a lot New Orleans could learn by taking into account another city that had been hit by a hurricane before.. Namely Galveston Texas (Back on September 8th, 1900. The Galveston Storm was a Category 4 and most of Galveston Texas at the time resided on a low lying Island that was at most 9 feet above sea level. This one storm in just a matter of hours literally flooded the island with a 17 foot storm surge. Even the meteorologist who lived there lost part of his family because even he underestimated the storm. When that storm was over at least 6,000 people lost their lives (Some estimates put the death toll as high as 8,000 but remeber record keeping was never perfect (heck Look at the San Francisco Earthquake. in 1906, they said 478 people died in that disaster, yet in recent years the real death toll for the Great San Francisco Quake is now reported to be well over 3,000.

But I digress. and getting back onto topic, How did Galveston learn from the storm? What it did was it built a seawall and then backfilled in with millions of cubic feet of sand and compacted it down. now if a Category 4 storm hits Galveston with that same 17 foot surge? at worst the city would take a 3 feet flood (Instead of 8 feet) but in the 15 or so years after that the city took steps to prepare for this disaster.. and 15 years later another Major Hurricane hit and because of their Preparations Galveston survives to this day.

Now in New Orleans' Case, as Kirschy pointed out.. it lies well below Sea Level (up to 10 feet in some places).. and unless New Orleans can actually raise the buildings a full 10-20 feet on sandy or rock laden soils, there's no way it can really protect itself from such a disaster, not unless they just want to move the whole city to the north, till it resides above sea level.

but Believe me, New Orleans needs to do something about their Problem and I think that in this case, they need to really look to themselves and learn the lesson given to them in the form of Katrina.. in short they need to re-examine what they learned and figure out a way to change the outcome the next time.. else the next time, it could end up a lot worse.

:coyote: