Weather: The Official Toonzone 2006 Hurricane Season Thread!

[tucsoncoyote]

Arlene,Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Zeta.....

It's that Time of year again...
It's June 1st, 2006...

and today is The Official Start Date of the 2006 North Atlantic (and Eastern Pacific) Hurricane Season for this year.
In 2005, Nature went wild with 27 Named Storms in the Atlantic, and some of the Names Mentioned above were part of that season.

And This year, it's no different...
Last Year's Hurricane Season got off to a Wild Start when Tropical Storm Arelene was born on June 8th 2005, and the Season didn't end until Tropical Storm Zeta Died out on January 6th, 2006, one of the longest seasons on record So many storms were named that we actually for the first time ever ran out of names!..

And what a record Breaking and horrifying season it was...

27 named Storms...
14 of them Hurricanes,
3 of them at the top of the Saffir-Simpson* Scale (Category 5)

and enough Death, Destruction and Misery to write a small novella about.

We watched in Horror as Katrina Battered New Orleans,
We held our breath as we watched Rita turn the Texas Coast Line into a battlezone,

and we watched as Wilma became a record breaker in her own right with the Lowest Barometric Pressure ever recorded.

But Now, it's 2006, and a new list of storm names come forth.
Names Like Alberto, Beryl, Chris, will start off the season, and the season will go on, each storm having it's own personality, being born, living, and dying until Nature runs it's course and the hurricane season ends on November 30th, 2006. (Hopefully)

But this year it's going to be different... For us...
This year , rather then putting up 5, 10, or even 20 or so different threads, talking about hurricanes raging in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico ,this will be The one and only thread to put all the hurricane News, information, stories, and even Jokes and questions that there are to ask and / or report about hurricanes.

Everybody Talks about the Weather..but you can't do a thing about it!
(But Remember the rules of Cafe Toon Zone are in effect.Everyone can talk about the Hurricanes, just please no Political rhetoric here, as this is a thread about Hurricane information and News, Not Politics about Global warming or conspiracy theories!)

Finally a solution to all the posts about hurricanes... here it is...
In short, No More Clutter of the TZ.net board with multiple stories of Tropical storms and hurricanes, and in fact, I would like the Moderators to make this a 'Sticky' at this time, until November 30th 2006 rolls around, or until the last named storm of the Atlantic Season (whatever it is) fades out..

Let the Hurricane Season Begin!
So here it is People.....:
http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/images/hurpic2.jpg

It's Hurricane Season...2006

Are you prepared for this season????

Let the Discussion Begin...

:coyote:

[Spike Mcdougal]

Beryl!?!

Lovely now we have a hurricane named after a Sailor Moon villain.

[tucsoncoyote]

Beryl!?!

Lovely now we have a hurricane named after a Sailor Moon villain.

That's correct Spike McDougal, there is a Beryl this season in fact here are the Names for both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Storms . These lists are found at : The National Hurricane Center Web site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml), and are as thus



------
2006 Atlantic Names:
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby,Ernesto, Florence, Gordon,Helene,Issac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William

2006 Eastern Pacific names:
Aletta,, Bud, , Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia, Fabio, Gilma, Hector, Ileana, John, Kristy, Lane, Miriam, Norman , Olivia, Paul, Rosa, Sergio,Tara, Vicente, Willa, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke.
--------


Notes about names: In 1953, the World Meteorological Organization (Known as the WMO, a branch of hte United Nations), produced the first list of Hurricane names using female gender based names. In 1979, male gender based names were first introduced into the list and they alternated with the women's names. Currently there are six lists of namesas determined by the WMO, and are used in rotation. Thus this list in 2006 will not be used again till 2012.

These lists never really change unless there is (or are) a storm (or storms) so deadly or costly that the future use of its' (or their) name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs in the list, then at the next annual meeting by the WMO, the offending name (or names) are removed from the list and another name (or names) are selected to replace it (or them).

Several names have been changed since the lists were created. For example, on the 2004 list (which will be used again in 2010), Gaston has replaced Georges and Matthew has replaced Mitch. On the 2006 list which was last used in 2000, Kirk has replaced Keith. and on the 2005 list, (which will used again in 2011), The names Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma have been removed and will be replaced with Don, Katia, Rina, and Whitney.

*Bold Facing and lining through names on each list: When a storm is active and has been named, I will Boldface the Name of the Storm so you know that the storm is currently occuring. If a Storm (Such as Aletta) has Occurred the name will be struck out, signifying that it has already occurred.

Edited note: who We have this year.: Well since someone Mentioned we have Beryl (from Sailor Moon), other names that could be poked fun at are Miriam (Mim) and Tara (From Kim Possible) and Valerie (From Josie and the Pussycats) If there are other names that are from cartoons, go ahead and post them up..

:coyote:

[Chad Bonin]

I officially do not care about the weather at all, but...

I love the fact that we go from Rita attacking the city to... Queen Beryl attacking.

[sun]

We all should....It affects us in ways you have not dreamed of....
Stuart

[Tenku]

Oh great, another season is here. I'm just wondering how this will go. Hopefully not like last year.

I'm expecting my area to be hit simply because hurricanes (or tropical incidents as some call it now) never really grazed over here. I know I'm about 150-250 miles inland from the Gulf shore but still, we have rivers, creeks, and hills, ravines, you name it; and low-lying areas and trees.

So, there's potential for some damage like any other place on the coast.

Beryl, eh? I'm still waiting for Serena. <_<

[Chad Bonin]

We all should....It affects us in ways you have not dreamed of....
Stuart
Yeah, but like nature in general, I just honestly don't give a flip. The only reason I consistently hope it rains is due to the desire of not actually having to work to get my car clean.

And just because I'm in the ATL doesn't mean I completely am devoid of weather. Roads have flooded before...

[Martianinvader]

According to the news, the US government says it isn't bailing any more people out--it can't afford a second hideous hurricane season, so it's just going to ignore it. Which will be barely different from their response last time...

Cold world.

[tucsoncoyote]

According to the news, the US government says it isn't bailing any more people out--it can't afford a second hideous hurricane season, so it's just going to ignore it. Which will be barely different from their response last time...

Cold world.

What really worries me the most about this statement is this: It seems that yes the government might be complacent here but what might be worse is that homeowners or business owners might be complacent of the warnings until it is too late to escape or flee from the path of the oncoming storm... That's what happened in New Orleans..

But this year we really need to keep an eye out on the New England area, as there is another city that is in dire trouble if even a Category 2 storm hits it.

And that is of course New York City, New York.

Why New York? Well it's quite obvious..

First off Geographically speaking New York City is geographically located at a place where the shorelines meet at a right angle to one another and you have the Hudson River draining into this angle..

now Imagine even a high end Category 2 or Even a Category 3 storm striking the Northen Tip of New Jersey at the worst possible time, during High tide.

The Storm Surge in the New York Area would flood all the way up to 21st street and in fact we're talking about 2.2 Million peoples lives of a city with 8 Million people in it, on the line here.

Also people don't think that such a storm can occur.. that's not true either. The Long Island Express of 1938, rampaged just 70 Miles to the east of New York City. and in fact on Average New York City gets either hit indirectly (or Directly) by a storm on the order of once every 75 years or so.. During one storm in the 1880's Hog Island which was one of the Barrier islands that extended out into the Atlantic Ocean in that area, was completely wiped out with one hurricane.

Now Imagine the Damage of New York here.. We're talking 20 Foot storm surges that would innudate the subways (and render them useless for years) and even Wall Street would be innudated... then you got the winds, a 120 mph wind in those narrow city canyons of New york would get accelerated to over 150 by means of the "Wind Tunnel" Effect...causing even windows in the tallest skyscrapers to blow out..and land on anyone who isn't protected...

in fact a study says that it's impossible to move the entire 8 million person population out of New York even if they were given 72 hours notice. The Long Island Express of 1938, covered a distance of over 600 miles in just over 10 hours. way too short for even a plausible evacuation.

Even when New Orleans had 48 hours you still had the complacency.. some folks wanted to ride out the storm.. you saw the results.. and in fact some estimates would mean that New York would be just as great if not greater in Damage estimates..(Anyone want to pick up the 100 Billion Dollar bill on this one? We're already picking it up with New Orleans..and that problem could have been solved with just 3 billion in funding the strengthening of the levees...

so in the end, I feel that with such complacency, a disaster is coming that could easily rival last years events and in fact that's what might just happen this year..(Note I said Might, I'm not saying (or Hoping) that it will...

:coyote:

[Chad Bonin]

According to the news, the US government says it isn't bailing any more people out--it can't afford a second hideous hurricane season, so it's just going to ignore it. Which will be barely different from their response last time...

Cold world.
Well, maybe this time, people will realize "Get out of the way of that massive storm headed your way".

Survival of the fittest much?

[William C. Maune]

Yeah, but like nature in general, I just honestly don't give a flip. The only reason I consistently hope it rains is due to the desire of not actually having to work to get my car clean.

And just because I'm in the ATL doesn't mean I completely am devoid of weather. Roads have flooded before...

Hey. I've watched that radar, you get some pretty good severe thunderstorms in Georgia at time. We should all care about the weather, it is one of the few things that truly does affect us everyday.

- William C. Maune, Meteorologist

[Chad Bonin]

Hey. I've watched that radar, you get some pretty good severe thunderstorms in Georgia at time. We should all care about the weather, it is one of the few things that truly does affect us everyday.
You know why I watch the weather?

If it rains, nobody goes out to buy stuff.
If nobody goes out to buy stuff, work at Target is much more relaxed.

And... ain't that FORMER meteorologist?

[Dark Fact]

Beryl!?!

Lovely now we have a hurricane named after a Sailor Moon villain.
I can see the YTMNDs for this now...:rolleyes2

According to the news, the US government says it isn't bailing any more people out--it can't afford a second hideous hurricane season, so it's just going to ignore it. Which will be barely different from their response last time...

Cold world.
So, in other words, if another hurricane causes another mass flood in another city which could cause major loss of life, the government is simply going to ignore it no matter how many people beg or plead?

I think the government needs to rethink their plans...

[William C. Maune]

And... ain't that FORMER meteorologist?

Nope. I got the degree. I may be studying for the bar exam now, but I am still also a Meteorologist, and always will be!

[mookie75]

Well, maybe this time, people will realize "Get out of the way of that massive storm headed your way".

Survival of the fittest much?

Indeed. The cold, hard truth of the matter is that all people who live in potential hurricane areas know that they're living in potential hurricane areas. They probably knew that when they moved there as well. Hoping that a major hurricane never hits them is a gamble many people take in exchange for living in such places. To be honest, I'd probably take the gamble if I had a reason and an opportunity to live on or near the coast as well. :sweat:

[tucsoncoyote]

Well since we're on the subject of Hurricanes, it's funny that I ran across an article while looking up the National Hurricane Center.

One of the News services just recently reported that a certain insurance company will no longer be offering earthquake insurance to it's customers in California, on the grounds that they do not want to have to report claims incase the big one happens.

But this did get me to stop and think for a moment when I dug a little deeper into the story it seems the same insurance company no longer wants to hand out hurricane Insurance either...

but the thing is this.. a Lot of homes with their Homeowner insurance is protected from everything save for one item... Flood damage.

so then this got me even puzzling more.. why not have a full comprehensive insurance that would protect the homeowner or renter from damages.. the reason is simple. the insurance companies don't want to pay out damages in case the worst happens.

but if you think I'm kidding well here is the article:

http://www.latimes.com/business/investing/wire/sns-ap-allstate-earthquakes,1,618002.story?coll=sns-ap-investing-headlines

your thoughts on this, considering that if they could do this with earthquake insurance, wouldn't it be also logical for them to drop hurricane insurance claims as well?

:coyote:

[William C. Maune]

your thoughts on this, considering that if they could do this with earthquake insurance, wouldn't it be also logical for them to drop hurricane insurance claims as well?

They wouldn't really be dropping hurricane insurance claims, they'd be dropping hurricane insurance altogether. Thus, without hurricane insurance there would be nothing to claim.

[solarflere]

And that is of course New York City, New York.

Why New York? Well it's quite obvious..

First off Geographically speaking New York City is geographically located at a place where the shorelines meet at a right angle to one another and you have the Hudson River draining into this angle..

now Imagine even a high end Category 2 or Even a Category 3 storm striking the Northen Tip of New Jersey at the worst possible time, during High tide.

The Storm Surge in the New York Area would flood all the way up to 21st street and in fact we're talking about 2.2 Million peoples lives of a city with 8 Million people in it, on the line here.

Also people don't think that such a storm can occur.. that's not true either. The Long Island Express of 1938, rampaged just 70 Miles to the east of New York City. and in fact on Average New York City gets either hit indirectly (or Directly) by a storm on the order of once every 75 years or so.. During one storm in the 1880's Hog Island which was one of the Barrier islands that extended out into the Atlantic Ocean in that area, was completely wiped out with one hurricane.

Now Imagine the Damage of New York here.. We're talking 20 Foot storm surges that would innudate the subways (and render them useless for years) and even Wall Street would be innudated... then you got the winds, a 120 mph wind in those narrow city canyons of New york would get accelerated to over 150 by means of the "Wind Tunnel" Effect...causing even windows in the tallest skyscrapers to blow out..and land on anyone who isn't protected...

in fact a study says that it's impossible to move the entire 8 million person population out of New York even if they were given 72 hours notice. The Long Island Express of 1938, covered a distance of over 600 miles in just over 10 hours. way too short for even a plausible evacuation.After 1992 storm that flooded Brooklyn, the beaches were extended, wavebreakers were placed at key locations and neseesery measures were taken. But my question is this, how can a storm of 70MPH or worce hit NYC? our climade can not support those storms, the waters are too cold to sustein its strength. Unless its an anomaly that happans out of the blue, I don't think that its very likely. Even Floyd that caused Havok from Florida all the way to NYC that was Cat 4 only reached NYC as a Thunderstorm (not even a Tropical Deprecion) with lots of rain. That was it. Plus compared to New Jersey. we are on a higher ground level.

If I am wrong, and I very well could be, can you explain the details if you don't mind, I am curious about this. I think the media is blowing it out of proportion.

[William C. Maune]

If I am wrong, and I very well could be, can you explain the details if you don't mind, I am curious about this. I think the media is blowing it out of proportion.

2 ways. First, the warmth of areas of water fluctuate due to many factors. If the water along the east coast became warmer than usual, a hurricane could more easily maintain strength along the coast. Second, it just takes a storm that is big enough. If a storm is, say, a Category 5 by the time it has gotten North to the coastal waters off the Carolinas where the water generally starts to get cooler, then while it will likely lose some strength, it could still be significantly more than 70mph by the time it would get to New York. Thus the two main ways would be warmer than usual water and a hurricane that happens to be big enough to plow on through.

[solarflere]

2 ways. First, the warmth of areas of water fluctuate due to many factors. If the water along the east coast became warmer than usual, a hurricane could more easily maintain strength along the coast. Second, it just takes a storm that is big enough. If a storm is, say, a Category 5 by the time it has gotten North to the coastal waters off the Carolinas where the water generally starts to get cooler, then while it will likely lose some strength, it could still be significantly more than 70mph by the time it would get to New York. Thus the two main ways would be warmer than usual water and a hurricane that happens to be big enough to plow on through.Our Warm waters are in in late July though August only. The rest of the Hurricane season we have cold waters. So unless we get real unlucky and get a Hurricane in those 40 days, I think we will be fine since warm coastal waters are key.

[tucsoncoyote]

Actually when it came to the 1938 "Long Island Express" the set up in September of 1938 was that over the Eastern third of the US you had a high pressure system and to the east you had the Bermuda high between these two areas was a Low Pressure area Trough.. and in fact here is what the path looked like when this pressure pattern set up:

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/track.gif

Note the observation points of the storm between North Carolina and New York, and you can see that this represents a forward speed of about 60 mph..(The storm would have winds of 115-155 mph so the right front quadrant would have sustained wind speeds of 175-215 mph...

Now had this track been a little bit further west, the track would have rolled right over New York City.. and in fact this would have caused a major disaster.. Now they say if suck a disaster were to occur we could be looking at a damage estimate of at least 50 billion dollars and as much as 100 billion... just if there was a strike at New York city.. and it's funny cause this year they are talking that this area could be vulnerable.

:coyote:

[RayChuang]

But this year we really need to keep an eye out on the New England area, as there is another city that is in dire trouble if even a Category 2 storm hits it.

And that is of course New York City, New York.



Did you just watch a recent episode of Mega Disasters on the History Channel? They actually talked about the effects of such a storm and the estimates of damage from a Category 3 direct hurricane strike on New York City could well substantially exceed US$100 billion, with the stock exchanges all shut down for at minimum three weeks.

[tucsoncoyote]

Did you just watch a recent episode of Mega Disasters on the History Channel? They actually talked about the effects of such a storm and the estimates of damage from a Category 3 direct hurricane strike on New York City could well substantially exceed US$100 billion, with the stock exchanges all shut down for at minimum three weeks.

It's interesting that you bring this up Ray, as that's not the only show that brought this up (Mega-Disasters on the History Channel, that is...) The Weather Channel's First show of It could happen Tomorrow.was in fact the exact same event (Category 3 storm hitting NYC during the fall) and in fact the Wall Street Section of Manhattan would be 6 to 8 feet under water, Battery park and Coney Island would be removed completely when the 30+ Foot surge hit.. in fact the subways would be rendered completely useless as well and no amount of pumping would be able to bring that back...

In short that 100 Billion in damage seems very plausible to me..

In fact tonight on the Weather Channel they aired It Could Happen Tomorrow: Katrina: the Lost Episode and the real irony was this... the Episode that talked about this disaster occured some 4 months before it hit.. as one of the forecasters for the Channel said. "It was almost as if "Katrina had read the script last year... (The Episode until last night never aired as Katrina did do the exact same thing... It did Happen Yesterday..)

And the Double Irony... Further studies of the New Orleans Levee Systems showed that a 3 Billion dollar investment to strengthen the levees from Category 3 strength to Category 5 could have been done, but still in the end, the 3 billion dollar cost is peanuts compared to the 30 billion dollar price tag of rebuilding the city...

One final note: I did note one thing about the Evacuation procedures for Katrina... The City had a 72 hour window to evacuate and it wasn't until 48 hours till landfall did the Mayor order a "Voluntary" Evacuation, and just 24 hours before landfall did he order a "Mandatory" Evacuation... I think if The Mayor had been more direct and Ordered a Mandatory evacuation some 48 hours before land fall rather then the less applicable "Voluntary" Evacuation, I think the Death toll could have been reduced by half (Something on the order of Camille rather then making this the worst Disaster in the 21st century so far (Galveston was the worst by far, with 6,000 to 8,000 deaths, in 1900, and this was a Category 4 storm when it hit..)

Nuff said.

:coyote:

[RayChuang]

(Galveston was the worst by far, with 6,000 to 8,000 deaths, in 1900, and this was a Category 4 storm when it hit..)


However, Galveston was a sitting duck for that hurricane because of two reasons: 1) it was on low-lying ground and 2) there were protection structures to slow down the storm surge. Small wonder why some 8,000 to 12,200 people were killed in that unfortunate tragedy. This is why when the city was rebuilt they built a major seawall system and also raised much of the city as much as 17 feet to prevent future tragedies.

[tucsoncoyote]

However, Galveston was a sitting duck for that hurricane because of two reasons: 1) it was on low-lying ground and 2) there were protection structures to slow down the storm surge. Small wonder why some 8,000 to 12,200 people were killed in that unfortunate tragedy. This is why when the city was rebuilt they built a major seawall system and also raised much of the city as much as 17 feet to prevent future tragedies.

That's true Ray, but then again There have always been storms that always stand out in a list of storms throughout the ages...and Katrina and Rita were two last year that stood out.. but if you want to put the storms in a categbory of their own you have to start digging thought the past 120 years to find a lot of Notable storms (Yes The Galveston storm of September 8, 1900 was a killer, but then so was Andrew (1992), and Camille (1969) in fact these storms were a lot stronger then the Galveston storm.. (It makes you wonder what the death toll would have been if these storms had impacted different areas..(For Example.. what if a Category Five Camille Like storm had pulled a "Long Island Express... or maybe Andrew had pulled a Labor Day Storm of 1935 move.. the death tolls could have been a bit higher.

But still when you think about Hurricanes you have to look at what made these storms destructive... It wasn't the wind or the water temperature that made them this way, a Lot of it had to deal with the Geography of the coastline...

now what Really makes this year so dangerous is that NOAA is talking about the Northeast being hit by another Long Island Express type storm this year.. the models are starting to look like an Event of 1938 proportions could end up having the hurricane be a strong 3 and traveling up the coast much like the diagram shown above, with one slight difference.. the Eye of the storm comes across Northern New Jersey (Placing New York in the "Danger Zone:" of the storm (The Right Front Quadrant. (In the Right front Quadrant of any hurricane , the wind will be the sustained wind (Or gusts) plus the forward speed of the storm (so a Category 5 storm with 155 mph winds and a forward speed of 40 mph would have a sustained wind field of 195 mph in that right front quadrant (and the subsequent surge would be higher then the other quadrants of any hurricane..)

so that's why New Orleans Got Pummeled even though the storm Passed to the East of them, the Northerly winds of the storm literally pushed the surge off of Lake Ponchatrain right into the city... and we all know what happened there..

Nuff said.

:coyote:

[sun]

Hey. I've watched that radar, you get some pretty good severe thunderstorms in Georgia at time. We should all care about the weather, it is one of the few things that truly does affect us everyday.

- William C. Maune, Meteorologist

This is an excellent point...I was watching the radar, a few minutes ago, and you can see a very moderate rainfall approach my area right now.(It is about l00 miles away) .The kind of stuff that was put up when Katrina was approaching, was so real, and, gave people time to get out....Unfortunately, many couldn't....
...Referring to the New York senario, there would be time to get out, if people chose to,,,,,,there is enough public trans there to move the population, even this huge poulation, to higher ground, Yes, there would be distruction, but lives lost could be kept to a minimum, if people moved 24 hours before it hit (when the trans was operating) ...and you can see it coming, as we saw the other one come....Let us hope that this doesn't happen, any where...but, it is the weather..and no one knows.........Stuart

[tucsoncoyote]

This is an excellent point...I was watching the radar, a few minutes ago, and you can see a very moderate rainfall approach my area right now.(It is about l00 miles away) .The kind of stuff that was put up when Katrina was approaching, was so real, and, gave people time to get out....Unfortunately, many couldn't....
...Referring to the New York senario, there would be time to get out, if people chose to,,,,,,there is enough public trans there to move the population, even this huge poulation, to higher ground, Yes, there would be distruction, but lives lost could be kept to a minimum, if people moved 24 hours before it hit (when the trans was operating) ...and you can see it coming, as we saw the other one come....Let us hope that this doesn't happen, any where...but, it is the weather..and no one knows.........Stuart

That's a very good point Oldtoonguy, but a lot of people really don't know what the real danger is in that New York Scenario. and here it is ..

How do you get more then 2.2 Million folks out of the Low Lying areas (Such as Coney Island, Battery park and even Wall Street to move to higher ground.. There's a few Logisitical problems New York FEMA has admitted to. and in fact Even with the Transit authority able to move the people in 24 hours, a Secnario like the 1938 'Long Island Express' would be a nightmare because in the 1938 event, the storm covered 600 miles in just under 10 hours (at a top forward speed of 60+ mph) Now granted that 24 hours is maybe enough time to move these people out of harms way, but remember you only would have less then 12 hours notice at worst and maybe 24 at best) to get 2.2 million folks who live in Lower Manhattan to some place of safety (The subways are out due to the flooding and tall skyscrapers would suffer from debris strikes and windows either shattering or blowing out. In fact here is a real surprise. Most of the people who live in these low lying areas come from a diversity of different cultures and in fact we're talking about 30 different languages to try and communicate to people that such a storm was on the way.. in fact a Lot of folks I feel would try to "Ride out " The storm as it hit the city, and in the end that in itself could cost lives.

But then you have the flip side to this coin.. Forecasting a disaster, and then having a "False Alarm" as the hurricane either misses the city (Much like 1938), or just moves out to sea without even coming close. Such a false alarm would in turn harbinger a potential complacency later on if another storm threatened and actually did hit.

So it's a case of "Darned if you do, and Darned if you don't" When it comes to New York city. and either way, the effects could be quite disasterous.

:coyote:

[solarflere]

You can't compare today with 1983. The climate has changed drastically. Coney Island has extended beaches now, and wave breakers. The waters are far too cold to sustein any major hurricane 70mph or over. The evac scenario is unlikely. If any state that have a potential problem, that’s NJ. They are below sea level, and their rivers get flooded and overflow every year on every rainstorm. Their sewer system breaks down and can't handle the massive amounts of water. NY is different, we are on a higher ground, and we are higher up north. Our warm waters are only from late July to August, that’s roughly 40 days when a hurricane might be able to sustain its own strength over out coastal waters.

[sun]

You can't compare today with 1983. The climate has changed drastically. Coney Island has extended beaches now, and wave breakers. The waters are far too cold to sustein any major hurricane 70mph or over. The evac scenario is unlikely. If any state that have a potential problem, that’s NJ. They are below sea level, and their rivers get flooded and overflow every year on every rainstorm. Their sewer system breaks down and can't handle the massive amounts of water. NY is different, we are on a higher ground, and we are higher up north. Our warm waters are only from late July to August, that’s roughly 40 days when a hurricane might be able to sustain its own strength over out coastal waters.

Solar...........I hope you are right, and I pray so...but predicting anything with the weather these days...?????? Who knows...40 days is long enough..I remember clearly Katrina....from depression to major storm was about a week, maybe less...Coyote can tell us..I am also very sorry to hear about the geography of New Jersey...I didn't know, some or much was below sea level,,,,,,,,,,And it goes to show how important sewer systems are in dealing with major floods...We take everything so granted. Every day is important......Let us hope this season is not as bad as last...

[tucsoncoyote]

Solar...........I hope you are right, and I pray so...but predicting anything with the weather these days...?????? Who knows...40 days is long enough..I remember clearly Katrina....from depression to major storm was about a week, maybe less...Coyote can tell us..I am also very sorry to hear about the geography of New Jersey...I didn't know, some or much was below sea level,,,,,,,,,,And it goes to show how important sewer systems are in dealing with major floods...We take everything so granted. Every day is important......Let us hope this season is not as bad as last...

Actually in the case of the 1938 Long Island Express the distance it covered from Cape Hatteras to Long Island was just 10 and 1/2 hours..but if you look at the chart above that's over 600 miles in just 10 hours.. and this storm took just 12 days to form.. And Old Toonguy is right about one thing.. Katrina blew up to full category 5 status in less then a day before it shrank back down to a high Category 3 storm just 2 hours before landfall..

So if you think about it.. 40 days of warm water is more then enough (Especially if the storm accelerated to the full 60 mph directional speed to cover that distance.. and warm water could be in the path of said storm thus making it more violent..(So a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane hitting new york city is possible. and then you remember you have to try and move 2.2 million folks out of harms way in Manhattan in under 12 hours. and that is where the danger lies.. you have to move a huge amount of people some 2.2 million in Manhattan alone, out of low lying flooding areas in under 12 hours.. and that's the hard part...

Also a side note.. Hurricanes can last quite a long time.. some storms can last 2 or even 3 weeks... before dying out.. the longest on record (that I can recall) was something like 27 days.

so that 40 day window is still more then enough time for a storm to happen on the New England coast.

:coyote:

[solarflere]

Actually in the case of the 1938 Long Island Express the distance it covered from Cape Hatteras to Long Island was just 10 and 1/2 hours..but if you look at the chart above that's over 600 miles in just 10 hours.. and this storm took just 12 days to form.. And Old Toonguy is right about one thing.. Katrina blew up to full category 5 status in less then a day before it shrank back down to a high Category 3 storm just 2 hours before landfall..

So if you think about it.. 40 days of warm water is more then enough (Especially if the storm accelerated to the full 60 mph directional speed to cover that distance.. and warm water could be in the path of said storm thus making it more violent..(So a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane hitting new york city is possible. and then you remember you have to try and move 2.2 million folks out of harms way in Manhattan in under 12 hours. and that is where the danger lies.. you have to move a huge amount of people some 2.2 million in Manhattan alone, out of low lying flooding areas in under 12 hours.. and that's the hard part...

Also a side note.. Hurricanes can last quite a long time.. some storms can last 2 or even 3 weeks... before dying out.. the longest on record (that I can recall) was something like 27 days.

so that 40 day window is still more then enough time for a storm to happen on the New England coast.

:coyote:But what are the odds of a major hurricane going all the way to NYC in the Hurrucane season that lasts through November in 40 day period? I am not saying we shouldn't have a contingency plan and evac plan ready, but don't start packing up and selling your house just yet. The odds are in our favor. After all, Florida is a Hirricane and Lightning capital of the world not NY. The media and newspapers are blowing this out of proportion. Its like they need to scare people into reading their papers every day.

[solarflere]

NY is probably the safest state from natural disasters. We have Bedrock underneath for hundreds of feet, so even if we do have minor earthquakes (2 or 3) we don't feel them. We don't have any active volcano's, nor hydrothermal activity so no geyser will be popping out anywhere. The waters are too cold for hurricanes, and no low pressure systems (or low enough) to cause tornadoes/twisters or funnel cloud. We are above sea level so even Tsunami's on a high tide are unlikely (unless there is an anomaly, no one can predict those). Our sewer system is deep and powerful. Our subway system could be better prepared to handle the floods, but there are worse subway systems in this country.

As for evac, there are signs all over NYC, where to go and what coastal evac route to take, what staging area to report to and so forth. We have that already.

[tucsoncoyote]

Okay so then Maybe New York might not (and I emphasize the words "Might not") be hit this year by a major hurricane, but then you have to look at one of the other cities in the world (other then New Orleans and Miami and every city up and down the Gulf Coast.)

Let's take a look at Hong Kong (yes Hong Kong is a ripe target for Typhoons (that's what they are called in the Western Pacific).

Now Hong Kong has from time to time gotten hit indirectly* from typhoons and it's only been a couple of times it has been hit by at least a category 3 storm.

But The Discovery channel did a series recently called Perfect Disaster, and ran a simulation of what would happen. Now first a little Geography info.. Hong Kong Geographically speaking is located at the same lattitude as Cape Hatteras North Carolina and in fact the real shocker here is that Hong Kong is mostly an island. (it's not even connected to the Main land. and it has about 7 million people...

Now what the scenario showed was a full blown Category 5 Typhoon* would hit the City Dead on, and even with enough evacuation time, the damage would be equivalent to the New York Event (if it did happen) so we're talking about 100 billion Dollars worth of Damage and if it was unprepared for the event the death toll could be comperable to that of New Orleans with Katrina..

but still Solarflare you do need to be not complacent. After all in 1938, and again in 1953 the new England Coast has been hit by at least 4 Category 3 storms.. New York Gets hit once every 75 years on average, and the last time was in 1953.. so that window of potential opporitunity for this even to happen is coming up rather fast..

in the end, I still think people still need to be prepared for the inevitable and I feel in the case of New Orleans last year they failed their job by not emphasizing how dangerous Katrina really was.

If they had I think the death toll would have been only 20 % of the 1500 lives lost..

Edited note: also Take a look at this page (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.shtml)as it shows how many storms have really hit New York and other states in the last 150 years (1854-2004). As you can see a total of 12, with 5 of them being major storms (Category 3 at least) so a Major Hurricane is not out of the question for New York.

:coyote:

[RayChuang]

Actually, Hong Kong is one of the better-prepared places in terms of protection from typhoons. The city has a massive system of storm drains designed to handle even huge hurricanes, and the hillsides have been extensively reinforced, which means mudslides are not as serious a problem as many people think.

In Hong Kong, tall apartment buildings are very strongly built, and all external windows in these apartments use thick tempered glass that are almost bulletproof glass quality. The apartment my late mom lived in for a number of years (and still lived in by a family relative) has a very strong structure that could withstand winds as high as 150 mph sustained.

[tucsoncoyote]

Actually, Hong Kong is one of the better-prepared places in terms of protection from typhoons. The city has a massive system of storm drains designed to handle even huge hurricanes, and the hillsides have been extensively reinforced, which means mudslides are not as serious a problem as many people think.

In Hong Kong, tall apartment buildings are very strongly built, and all external windows in these apartments use thick tempered glass that are almost bulletproof glass quality. The apartment my late mom lived in for a number of years (and still lived in by a family relative) has a very strong structure that could withstand winds as high as 150 mph sustained.

Actually Ray you are correct on that issue (My Bad, as I was watching Perfect Disaster and missed that important point. but in the Scenario that was placed in that particular Episode Called "Super Typhoon" The winds that you describe would rate a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale. but in the scenario they had the Sustained winds into the 180 mph sustained with 210 mph gusts a full blown Category 5...

and then there is this little bit of Trivia I caught tonight on the Weather Channel.. There has only been ever once, a Tropical Storm that has had the name retired.. adn that Name was Allison back in 2001. This storm even though it was a Tropical Storm and never reached hurricane status, caused 5 billion dollars worth of Damage alone when the storm dropped over 30 inches of rain in under 12 hours on Houston Texas causing 23 deaths.. this storm was extremely stubborn in dying out and in that time not only affected Houston but seven other states (including Pennsylvania) and in the end it never got above 74 mph.. So if people think Names are ever retired just because they are memorable hurricanes, this is that remind that in Post 3 the statement reads that a Hurricane name can be retired if it is a memorably destructive storm.. and Allison (2001) was such a monster.

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Sorry for the double post.. but here we go Ladies and Gentlemen, The first Tropiccal Depression (and soon to be named Storm) of the Atlantic Hurricane season for 2006...and his Name will be Alberto... (So who wants to get out the VO5 Hairspray?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0106W5+gif/145936W_sm.gif

This depression is currently dumping heavy amounts of Rain in Cuba and will be strengthening over the next few hours... to become Tropical storm Alberto, the First Named Storm of the Season.. Projection of the track shows that this storm will possibly enter the Florida coastline around the Cedar Key area.. Persons in this area should probably prepare for Heavy rains.. (at least the drought will be broken if it does make landfall.

:coyote:

[sun]

The map above is current, and updated. as of 6/12/06...It shows that the storm has increased some...and moved inland...I think it is updated every 4 - 10 hours...Watch it while it moves.....

[tucsoncoyote]

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AGAIN MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 50 KT...BUT IN A BAND THAT WAS EVEN
FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN IN THE EARLIER PASS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISPLACED
FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL
APPEARANCE AT THE MOMENT. BECAUSE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND DATA FROM THE NEXT MISSION OF THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS AROUND 0000 UTC COULD CONFIRM THIS
SUSPICION. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ALBERTO. EVEN
SO...THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE DO PREDICT SOME STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE LESS THAN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...
ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

Apparently Alberto will strengthen but only slightly before it makes landfall in florida.. Also as a Side note compared to last year (2005) the first name storm last year formed on the 8th of june.. this year it was the 11th.. so we're pretty much on track for an "Active year"

:coyote:

[Scorpio_G]

You can't compare today with 1983. The climate has changed drastically. Coney Island has extended beaches now, and wave breakers. The waters are far too cold to sustein any major hurricane 70mph or over. The evac scenario is unlikely. If any state that have a potential problem, that’s NJ. They are below sea level, and their rivers get flooded and overflow every year on every rainstorm. Their sewer system breaks down and can't handle the massive amounts of water. NY is different, we are on a higher ground, and we are higher up north. Our warm waters are only from late July to August, that’s roughly 40 days when a hurricane might be able to sustain its own strength over out coastal waters.

Solarflere, I lived in Coney Island, NYC and NJ. While I dont think we'll ever see a cat 5 or 4 hurricane in a long time (or maybe in our life times) you have to admit all of NY would be flooded. The Hurricane winds won't destroy the majority of buildings except for small houses, trees, and the maybe that weged topped building in Manhattan but they're will be flooding everywhere because the majority of our sewer systems are either clogged and while most work halfway most arent working at all.

Manhattan is notorious for horrible sewer systems because there's trash, grease from resturants and it's just old. I remember six months ago it rained for two weeks and it was horrible in Manhattan, flooding was everywhere and I was late for work and school every week because the subway lines was flooded as well as the streets. Freaking sucked.:shrug:

[tucsoncoyote]

Solarflere, I lived in Coney Island, NYC and NJ. While I dont think we'll ever see a cat 5 or 4 hurricane in a long time (or maybe in our life times) you have to admit all of NY would be flooded. The Hurricane winds won't destroy the majority of buildings except for small houses, trees, and the maybe that weged topped building in Manhattan but they're will be flooding everywhere because the majority of our sewer systems are either clogged and while most work halfway most arent working at all.

Manhattan is notorious for horrible sewer systems because there's trash, grease from resturants and it's just old. I remember six months ago it rained for two weeks and it was horrible in Manhattan, flooding was everywhere and I was late for work and school every week because the subway lines was flooded as well as the streets. Freaking sucked.:shrug:

And Scorpio G is right on this one.. but what makes the danger even more apparent is perhaps the geography near New york City...

In fact tonight on the weather channel at 9pm E/P and 8 Central the Weather channel is going to show It could happen Tomorrow. and it will show what just a Category 3 will do to New york (and we're talking a 135 mph hurricane that can generate an 12-15 foot storm surge on any coast.. but with the Geography of New York City (which lies on one half of a Right angled coast) The surge may be even higher.. say 20-30 feet (Almost as high as the surge generated by Katrina last year against New Orleans..

so then you will see what a category 3 will do.. Also it's interesting cause in the path of the scenario's surge lies a population of about 2.2 million.. so that's how many folks you would have to move in just say.. 10 to 12 hours .. tops..

But I agree with Scorpio.. New York needs to have their plan ready to go if it does happen.. and believe me it does suck when the transit is out of order due to flooding..

:coyote:

[sun]

Satalite image of water vapor of storm, rain amounts , Alberto, this morning AM.as it hits the coast, winds are not hurricane strength yet..(but perhaps lots of rain.)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFWV.JPG

[sun]

First Named Storm of 2006 Heads for Florida

Wathch the thing move with updates at post 36
http://view.atdmt.com/ORG/view/nwyrkfxs0040000007org/direct;at.orgfxs00000890/01/



By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: June 12, 2006
Filed at 11:18 a.m. ET
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) -- Forecasters issued a hurricane warning for parts of Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday as the first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quickly gained strength in the Gulf of Mexico.
The warning from Longboat Key near Sarasota to the Ochlockonee River south of Tallahassee means Tropical Storm Alberto was expected to produce hurricane conditions within the next 24 hours.

[tucsoncoyote]

Here's the Latest Position of the Storm and the top windspeeds are now approaching Hurricane Strength (Right now the sustained winds are 70 mph with higher gusts.)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0106W5+gif/145936W_sm.gif

Now the Real danger isn't the straight line winds or the circular winds that are associated with the actual storm, but rather most folks will have to keep an eye to the sky for one of the smaller and lesser known dangers of any tropical cyclones.. and what I am refering to is in fact, tornadoes.

Yes Tornadoes are one of the offshoots of hurricanes (after all most of the bands of a hurricane or tropical cyclone like Alberto are in fact nothing more then large thunderstorms and it's the right front side of Alberto which is causing the problems So those folkes in the hurricane and tropical watch areas need to prepare and keep an eye to the sky and an ear to NOAA Weather Radio, or tuned in to the Weather Channel on their TV in order to keep themselves safe (Not from the hurricane force winds, but rather the tornadoes. and the tornadoes themselves can be of any size ranging from small F0* voritces to huge F5* monsters. So if you live in Florida and are in the path of this tropical storm, please stay alert for the smaller more violent storms... nuff said.

:coyote:

*Edited Note : While Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir Simpson scale (Rated from 1 to 5) most tornadoes are rated on the more recognizable Fujita Scale (Which is from F0 to F5 and it's these storms that have higher wind speeds, and are usually imbeded within a tropical cyclone's rain bands.

[Quagmire]

Chiming in on the NY thing from the last page, The one good thing NY has going for it is that it's in a corner, and the storm would have to come in really fast at an angle for the worst possible damage from the right front quadrant.

If the LI Express was shifted 100 miles over, it would have weakened over Jersey and Delaware, probably falling to a category 1 by the time it reached NY. Bad, but not devastating.

Plus, forecasting is good enough that they can probably see a massive acceleration coming from 72 hours out now.

[tucsoncoyote]

Chiming in on the NY thing from the last page, The one good thing NY has going for it is that it's in a corner, and the storm would have to come in really fast at an angle for the worst possible damage from the right front quadrant.

If the LI Express was shifted 100 miles over, it would have weakened over Jersey and Delaware, probably falling to a category 1 by the time it reached NY. Bad, but not devastating.

Plus, forecasting is good enough that they can probably see a massive acceleration coming from 72 hours out now.

That's true but everyone tends to forget the real statistics of the Long Island Express Of 1938, and in fact here are the Statistics which you can Find here (http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/):


Peak Steady Winds - 121 mph (Category 3 (Category 3 starts at 116 mph and goes to 135 mph)
Peak Wind Gust - 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, MA. This would also Conform to a Category 3 storm even though this wind gust is the Sustained Wind speed + The forward Motion of the storm (Which would have made the storm at time of landfall have a forward motion at around 65 mph),
Lowest Pressure - 27.94 in (946.2 mb) at Bellport, NY (Again, conforms with a Category 3 storm)
Peak Storm Surge - 17 ft. above normal high tide (RI) (Category 3 again)
Peak Wave Heights - 50 ft. at Gloucester, MA
Deaths - 700 (600 in New England) most of these odcurred in the Providence Rhode Island Area due to flooding and winds, but other deaths were caused by the storm surge.
Homeless - 63,000
Homes and Buildings Destroyed - 8,900
Cost - $6.2 million ( in 1938 dollars), $15 billion (adjusted to the 1998 economy)

Now the issue at hand at what you are describing is a what if scenario that the eye of the storm impacts southern New Jersey and thus disapates before it reaches New York.

However since Storms are fickle creatures of the atmosphere, if this storm say were to hit with the same Velocity and Wind speeds above say on the Northern part of New Jersey Rather then the south, the resulting Storm surge would be Amplified by the Geographical design of the New York / Long Island Coastline, and the Northern New Jersey Coastline. A storm surge of 17 feet would be in fact amplified to that of close to 29 feet when the surge entered near the New york city area.

Most of Battery park, Coney Island, and all areas in Manhattan south of 21st street would be innudated, and the subway system in those areas would be rendered useless (and Pumping out the subways would not be an Option, as the water that would be in the subways would be in fact salt water..)

Now I've heard folks say it'll die out before it reaches New york City, that the storm would still not affect New York directly. But remember this. A category 2 storm with winds up to 115 mph would still be amplified by the skyscrapers so a wind speed of 115 mph would be amplified to say 145 mph or more.. add to that the forward speed, and those "Concrete Canyons" in New york accelerate the wind gusts up to about 180 mph...

and remember this storm took a path from Just off of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, to the Long Island area in just 10 hours.. even if we had the 72 hour lead time you are suggesting Quagmire, the ability to move 2.2 million people out of Harms way would be challenging to the New York FEMA agencies, and in fact the Death Toll of 700? Well if people were not prepared, the death toll could rival New Orleans easily in terms of Death, Destruction of Buildings, Transportation systems, and even emergency services.

in closing on this debate, a storm like the LI Express of 38 can happen, it's just that the fact that The New England Area on Average experiences one Category 3 storm every 75 years .. and it's been now 78 since the LI express came ashore.. so right now, New York and the New England Coast are in fact rolling the dice and this year it could end up that one well placed storm could in fact make Last year's katrina look like a Spring shower.. especially if the conditions of the atmosphere were perfectly tuned to this type of event. (and believe me if It can happen in 1938, it can and probably will happen again.. Nuff said...

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Again Sorry for the Double Post. but Alberto is history...

Alberto (June 11th -June 14th 2005) has now been declared by the National Hurricane Center to be deceased and it's name will now be removed from this year's List (refer back to Post 3) for the names List..

But The Remenants are still causing heavy rains in North Carolina and Virginia.. and that will be that... so there goes the Alberto (VO5) out the window.. ah well .. it could be worse next time.

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Okay sorry for bumping this up, but we now have our 2nd and 3rd named Eastern Paicifc Tropical storms, and these two are Named 'Bud' and 'Carlotta'

So get out your 'Air Bud' and 'Bud Abbott Jokes' cause Bud is in the works. The Latest position on "Bud" is as follows:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP03/refresh/EP0306W5+gif/154955W_sm.gif

The Latest position on "Carlotta" is as follows:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP04/refresh/EP0406W5+gif/085942W_sm.gif

So far This season has been a bit more quiet then last in the Atlantic (This Time Last Year we were all the way up to Dennis on the Atlantic Side of the equation, but still the 2006 season is still young, and we're only 2 weeks into July... and it's Only a matter of time before the Atlantic Basin fires up and we get this going.

:coyote:

[Alex Toon]

Okay sorry for bumping this up, but we now have our 2nd and 3rd named Eastern Paicifc Tropical storms, and these two are Named 'Bud' and 'Carlotta'
Bud? I thought that B would go to Beryl,like the stated.

Hmmm... Bud jokes. Ah!
It will probably come close to land, but then break up and never have the chance- much like Bud Bundy's romance life.
On the bad side, the storm could have great taste like Bud Lite.

All that I found for Carlotta- an Australian cross-dresser. Have fun with this one.

[mookie75]

Bud? I thought that B would go to Beryl,like the stated.

Hmmm... Bud jokes. Ah!
It will probably come close to land, but then break up and never have the chance- much like Bud Bundy's romance life.
On the bad side, the storm could have great taste like Bud Lite.

All that I found for Carlotta- an Australian cross-dresser. Have fun with this one.

Nah, Beryl will be the "B" storm in the Atlantic. Bud is out in the Pacific. Each ocean has its own list of alphabetical names.

[Tenku]

As much as I hate saying this...

My area needs at least tropical storm. The drought situation is getting worse and it's just been dry. We haven't seen a decent amount of rain in about a month or so. You'd think we get something from popup storms but the rain is quickly evaporated.

Stupid High pressure systems...

[tucsoncoyote]

As much as I hate saying this...

My area needs at least tropical storm. The drought situation is getting worse and it's just been dry. We haven't seen a decent amount of rain in about a month or so. You'd think we get something from popup storms but the rain is quickly evaporated.

Stupid High pressure systems...

Well DJ, we in Arizona Need the rain too (We're in the middle of a somewhat severe drought as well, and a few Tropical Cyclones aimed in our direction (Going up the Gulf of Baja) would ease our drought problem

But what's more amazing is that after a Really active year last year, this year the Atlantic is amazingly "quite" (Only one named storm compared to the Three so far the Eastern Pacific has had.

so yeah Hurricanes and Tropical storms are somewhat beneficial when it comes to easing droughts but when you add in all the other things (Winds, Storm surge, and even Tornadoes sometimes ) a Storm like that isn't that beneficial (Causing destruction ).

But last year at this time, (2005) the Atlantic storms were up to Emily (and in fact this year it's been just 1 storm so far.. but the season is still young and we got 4 months to go till the season ends.

(Wouldn't it be ironic that this could be like 1992? where you had only 6 named storms and only really 1 powerful hurricane (Andrew))???

but yeah we best keep an eye out on the Atlantic soon enough.. cause August is coming up..


:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Well Bud is History, Carlotta is still going in the Eastern Pacific, and now in the Eastern Pacific we got a new storm.. and his name is Daniel (Hmm any good Daniel Jokes out there?)

but here he is..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP05/refresh/EP0506W5+gif/204542W_sm.gif

and still in the Atlantic, No Storm named Beryl (and at this time last year the Hurricane Season was already up to the Letter 'F' .. so it may seem that the Pacific sector might be the active spot this year..

Edited Note: Carlotta died this morning so she's off the list but Daniel is a fresh storm

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Well the Sailor Moon Fans can now cheer for this Tropical storm which finally formed today.. Yep It's Beryl! (I call her a Princess unless she can become a Hurricane)

but here's the Chart and feel free to discuss:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0206W5+gif/213727W_sm.gif

So who's up for those Sailor Moon Jokes?

:coyote:

[Zach Logan]

Looks like Beryl has the potential to hit the northeast according to CNN...

[Karl Olson]

So who's up for those Sailor Moon Jokes?

I don't if we should laugh since the Queen of the Negaverse is about to totally wreck up the East Coast. I mean, people's livelyhoods and pure emotions are at stake.

;)

[tucsoncoyote]

I don't if we should laugh since the Queen of the Negaverse is about to totally wreck up the East Coast. I mean, people's livelyhoods and pure emotions are at stake.

;)

Well Beryl turned out to be more of a whimp then a threat.. and she's been removed off the list..

but now, Back in the Eastern Pacific.. we Still have Daniel Still going (as a full blown Hurricane, and now Emillia has shown up as well (This is the 2nd time this season that 2 storms occupy the same region of ocean at the same time..

so Here's the latest on Emillia (Graphical Chart):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP06/refresh/EP0606W5+gif/212056W_sm.gif

Now Emillia is more of a threat to the Baja coast, and in fact some of her moisture might end up in the Desert Southwest..(yes we need the rain as we are six inches behind in the precipitation levels.

so Let's Hope Emillia definitely peters out and the Monsoon high brings the much needed Moisture to Arizona...

:coyote:

[Alex Toon]

According to about.com,these are the remaining predicted storm names. I'll be making little jokes for each name like last year:
Debby- dunno any joke
Ernesto- goes to terrorize citizens
Florence- dunno
Gordon- may be a rough season for the fisherman
Helene- the name that launched a couple evacuees
Isaac
Joyce- It's coming too BLOOMing fast
Kirk- We come in peace, shoot to kill.
Leslie
Michael- angelo is a party dude {PARTAAAY!}
Nadine- dunno
Oscar- not as appealing as a gold bald naked man
Patty- where's Selma?!
Rafael- is cool but rude {gimme a break}
Sandy
Tony- You {mess} with me, you {mess} with the very best!!
Valerie
William

[tucsoncoyote]

Okay here we go... back to the Atlantic and it's time for 'Chris' to make an appearance... according to the National Hurricane Center here's the latest on Tropical Storm Chris:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5+gif/205846W_sm.gif

So Look out Florida cause Chris is coming... and he might be a hurricane when he gets there!

http://z.about.com/d/animatedtv/1/0/A/K/famguychris_noGuitar_05_72.jpg

Chris:
Yeah I'm coming for you Florida, and I'm Bringing my
"Air Guitar!"

oh and he's bringing something else:


http://www.acton.org/images/ppolicy/anc/evil_monkey.jpg

So Look out Florida.. else you'll be up to your necks in Evil Monkeys!

Meanwhile... Over in the Pacific, we have Fabio...(Hmm know any good romance novel jokes?):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP07/refresh/EP0706W5+gif/204726W_sm.gif


So Hawaii might get some rain... but eh, maybe Fabio will be dating Hawaii.. who knows..

:coyote:

[sun]

Typhoon Prapiroon Gathers Strength, Aims for Southern China By VOA News
02 August 2006


http://www.voanews.com/english/images/AFPTyphoonPrapiroon2Aug06_0.jpg
Southern China is bracing for a typhoon that caused havoc in the northern Philippines this week.
Typhoon Prapiroon is about 340 kilometers south-southwest of Hong Kong after being upgraded earlier Wednesday from a tropical storm.
It was centered about 340 kilometers south of Hong Kong at 7 p.m. local time Wednesday. Forecasters say it is moving northwest at 14 kilometers per hour toward the western part of China's Guangdong province and Hainan island. The storm could make landfall in southern China Thursday or early Friday.
Prapiroon, Thai for "rain god," has been gaining strength as it crosses the South China Sea. Its winds are churning at 118 kilometers per hour.
The storm battered the northern Philippines late Monday and early Tuesday, leaving at least eight people dead or missing.
Philippine officials say six people on Luzon island were killed by drowning, lightning strikes and falling trees. Two people reported missing were swept away by floodwaters.

[peacebyanymeans]

Chris should cool things down. Hooray!

Hopefully it aims alittle higher. It's supposed to reach Florida the day I go back to school. :p

[tucsoncoyote]

Chris should cool things down. Hooray!

Hopefully it aims alittle higher. It's supposed to reach Florida the day I go back to school. :p

Yep and he's still bringing 'The Evil Monkeys' With him!:p


http://www.fox.com/familyguy/bios/images/bio-chris.gif

Chris:
Shhhh!
Be Quiet
Not so Loud!...
Else The Evil Monkeys will get you!:evil:


http://www.acton.org/images/ppolicy/anc/evil_monkey.jpg

http://jimbolaya.blogspot.com/evil%20monkey1.jpg

http://static.flickr.com/41/123869914_5a1af7c6a2_m.jpg

http://www.londonist.com/attachments/Hazel/evil_monkey.jpg

http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/2954/stewiegriffin5nl.png
Stewie:
Blast! You Evil Monkeys!
Florida shall be mine!



:coyote:

[One Radical Dude]

I wouldn't mind getting some of the rainfall from Chris. We need it badly. :p

[sun]

Tropical Storm Chris falls apart (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/03/tropical.weather.ap/index.html) | Path (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:CNN_openPopup%28%27/interactive/weather/0608/map.path.chris/frameset.exclude.html%27,%27620x430%27,%27toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,width=620,height=430%27%29;)

According to CNN Tropical Storm Chris fell apart...?????
Is that the same a breakdown????
Who knows?
The Coyote knows...............................................Stuart

[tucsoncoyote]

Tropical Storm Chris falls apart (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/03/tropical.weather.ap/index.html) | Path (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:CNN_openPopup%28%27/interactive/weather/0608/map.path.chris/frameset.exclude.html%27,%27620x430%27,%27toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,width=620,height=430%27%29;)

According to CNN Tropical Storm Chris fell apart...?????
Is that the same a breakdown????
Who knows?
The Coyote knows...............................................Stuart

Actually I do.. it's called "Shear" (and what I am refering to is "Wind Shear")

Shear occurs when you have winds at two (or More Levels) of a storm blowing at different speeds and at Different Directions... When Shear Occurs usually a hurricane or a tropical cyclone (Like Chirs), gets torn apart, (The winds aren't able to circulate well and the storm dies ..

but.. and here's the big but...

A storm can move out of a "Shear Zone" and reintensify, sometimes to even greater proportions..

(Look at Katrina Last year.. this storm found an area of very Little shear and went from a Simple Category 1 storm to a category 5 in just hours..)

so if the atmosphere the storm is in is loaded with Shear, well then the storm will collapse in on itself. but if the conditions change, well so will the storm..

Also here's another fact about Shear..(Wind Shear espeically) Wind shear is very dangerous to airliners and even aircraft... (A plane if hit with enough "Shear" can in fact crash.. (And even around thunderstorms this can be very dangerous..(I noted today that they are routing planes into Tucson International a bit further south due to the storms north of us (Probably due to microbursts and windshear..)

but let's get back to Chris.. if this storm is gonna get torn apart.. well then this is probably what is going to happen..


http://z.about.com/d/animatedtv/1/0/U/K/familyGuy_Chris_dull_72.jpg

Chris:
I'm Going to be a big Wuss..aren't I?

:coyote:

[jrh31584]

Look at Katrina Last year.. this storm found an area of very Little shear and went from a Simple Category 1 storm to a category 5 in just hours...

Katrina was not inhibited by shear...it was inhibited by interaction with land. The explosive strengthening occured mainly because it went over the Gulf Loop Current.

[Tenku]

*looks at track*


Aw damn it, it's gonna hit southern Texas and Mexico. Honestly, they got enough rain. Spread the love and just CURVE at the last moment, Chris? :(

[veemonjosh]

http://www.starstore.com/acatalog/FG-Chris-wobbler-l.jpg

[One Radical Dude]

*looks at track*


Aw damn it, it's gonna hit southern Texas and Mexico. Honestly, they got enough rain. Spread the love and just CURVE at the last moment, Chris? :(

Well, I know some parts of TX doesn't need anymore rain, but further inland, rainfall would be welcome news. Rainfall is needed in my state, as well.

[tucsoncoyote]

Sadly we'll have to strike 'Chris' from this year's joke book and mark it off the list (Post #3 of this thread), seems like he turned out to be a wimpy storm after all... oh well there's alway 2012...

http://z.about.com/d/animatedtv/1/0/U/K/familyGuy_Chris_dull_72.jpg

Chris:
See I told you I was a wuss!
and you scared off all the evil monkeys!

http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/2954/stewiegriffin5nl.png
Stewie:
VICTORY IS MINE HA HA!!!!



Okay I'm done with the Chris Jokes.. time to move on to the next tropical cyclone this season...

that is when one forms... could be a while.. or it could be a few days... stay tuned..

:coyote:

[sun]

'God of rain' leaves over 70 dead or missing in China
(http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/weather/*http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060806/wl_asia_afp/chinaweatherstorm)

AFP - Sun, 06 Aug 2006 07:46:45 EDT - Tropical storm Prapiroon has swept across south China, leaving a trail of destruction with more than 70 people reported dead or missing. Hit the link above for the whole story (Off of Yahoo News..link lasts a day or so) ..Evidently the rain, is still causing disaster there as you read this...............Stuart

[sun]

This one is typhoon Saomai.....one of the worst in years...Says the worst storm to hit China in 5 decades..l.3 million have been evacuated...don't know yet about loss of life..Probably will be very bad.
.." Before its arrival, at least 760,000 people were evacuated from flood-prone areas of Zhejiang and 569,000 from the neighboring coastal province of Fujian, Xinhua said. It said a total of 70,000 ships had returned to port in the two provinces." The story also says it is the eighth typhoon this season, the worst on record...

Here is the link........http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060810/ap_on_re_as/asia_typhoon

[tucsoncoyote]

After reading all the reports it seems that 'Super' Typhoon Saomai, was a rather powerful storm that hit the China Coast.. This storm was equal in strength to Katrina Last year (Category 4), and in fact it's quite impressive that China got hit this year not just once but rather twice.

Now as for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins and we're coming up on the one year anniversay of Katrina (August 29th), and this year both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins are amazingly quiet... (Only 6 named storms so far in the Eastern Pacific, and only 3 named storms in the Atlantic.. and of those three named Atlantic storms (Alberto, Beryl, Chris), none of them have made landfall and none of them have been more then tropical storms (Winds greather then 39 mph but less than 73 mph)

but remember the peak of the Hurricane Season is right about September 15th or so, so we're fast approaching the high point of the Hurricane season.

(But what is really unusual is the lack of Development in both basins.. Not even as much as conducive conditions that would spawn even a tropical depression...

so this year.. the luck is holding.. but the real question is this.. How much more luck can we have before it runs out this season?

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Okay we got two things going on in both basins today and we'll start in the Pacific...

First off I kind of Missed Tropical storm Gillmia and besides it was no threat to land.. but then we got Tropical storm Hector in the Eastern Pacific....

Here's the latest on Hector:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP0906W5+gif/204604W_sm.gif


Hector at this point looks like there will be no threat to land...

However in the Atlantic, we got a potential situation setting up... and this is the latest report on this:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 MILES PER HOUR IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY.

so we'll have to keep an eye on this one, and if it does develop, well then it will take the name Debby.

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Okay we really need to start watching the Atlantic side of the board as we got Tropical Depression #4 and this could turn into Tropical Storm Debby at any time Here's the latest on TD #4 (Edited Note: It's now Debby!)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0406W5+gif/204647W_sm.gif


Meanwhile in the Pacific we got Two storms running at the same time.. Hector is still a tropical storm but is about to move out of the Eastern Pacific and will be tracked by the Hawaiian typhoon center but meanwhile back closer to the Baja Peninsula we got Hurricane Ileana.. and she could give the Southwest more rain then we need (but we need all we can get!)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP10/refresh/EP1006W5+gif/204810W_sm.gif

Already we're coming up on the 1 year anniversary of Katrina, and it's funny, the Atlantic Basin has been too quiet this year, and the Pacific side of the equation has been more active (with 9 named storms so far and it's only August 22) the Peak of Hurricane Season is 3-4 weeks away and still The Atlantic side has been rather unusually quiet.

Your thoughts on this?

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Alright folks this time It's serious.. and it's deja vu all over again..

1 year ago. Katrina hit the New Orleans area, and in fact right now in the atlantic, we have a Tropical Depression (#5) that could form into Ernesto...

Now what is interesting is the track this depression is taking.. and it's very similar to Katrina....(Deja vu all over again perhaps?

Take a look at this latest map of TD#5:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5+gif/025435W_sm.gif

This depression is starting off rather strong for it's size and the computer tracking models are starting to show that this storm could strengthen into Ernesto in as little as 3-6 hours.. after that if the models hold true, well then this could be a deja vu of Last year all over again...

I mean I found This timeline of what happened last year during Katrina, (http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15353812.htm) and in fact it's odd that it's right near that start date.. August 23rd was Katrina's start date and this was detected less then 3 hours ago.. on August 24th.. less then a day later then Katrina..

Could we have a repeat of last year's Disaster on our hand? Could we have another Rita or Wilma perhaps.

Time will tell.

:coyote:

[RayChuang]

Could we have a repeat of last year's Disaster on our hand? Could we have another Rita or Wilma perhaps.

Time will tell.


Two things will determine what will happen:

1) The climatic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico once the storm hits the Gulf--will there be strong high-altitude wind shear to break the storm up?

2) The water temperature in the Gulf. If the water temperature is fairly high then we could see a Category 3 hurricane probably hit the Texas coastline somewhere west of the Houston/Galveston area.

[tucsoncoyote]

Two things will determine what will happen:

1) The climatic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico once the storm hits the Gulf--will there be strong high-altitude wind shear to break the storm up?

The Models are showing that if Tropical Depression 5, (Which might be called Ernesto), can get into the Central Caribbean (Say south of Puerto Rico, and Jamaica, then the conditions right now are very favorable to suggest strengthening.. in fact the reports and computer models are suggesting currently that once it breaks into the area north and west of Venezuela, then the chances for Strengthing is very likely.

2) The water temperature in the Gulf. If the water temperature is fairly high then we could see a Category 3 hurricane probably hit the Texas coastline somewhere west of the Houston/Galveston area.

Acutally this is perhaps the most dangerous part.. if it is able to slide into the "Yucatan Channel" (the area between Yucatan and Cuba..(and the models as you can see in Post 75 suggest), then the odds of this storm strengthening to a Category 3 storm is very possible (and Believe me, the Waters of the Gul have been completely "Untapped' for heat for any storm since last year (after all remember this time Last year Katrina came over southern Florida into the Gulf and just Explosively grew from a Category 1 storm to that of a full blown Category 5 storm in just under 3 days. (And in fact one thing I tend to point out is that the cone that is shown in Post 75, is in fact the area this storm could end up in (due to program model errors) so this area of weather should be more then likely watched. and watched Carefully. after all once it gets into the Central Caribbean, and if there is no shear, and if it then breaks into the Gulf and doesn't encounter shear, then the chances I would say are very good we could see this storm blow up into a Category 2,3,4, or even a 5.. (Not likely because of it's forward speed, but if it slowed down a bit more, then a Category 5 storm is plausible but at this point it's not likely (More like a Category 4 is possible. (Beyond 5 days Tracking becomes sketchy and once it enters the Gulf, it could go any direction.. (we could suggest an area from Brownsville Texas, to Tallahassee, Florida should keep an eye on this storm and anyone living in this area to keep an eye on this.

Just my thoughts on this situation currently.

Edited Note: WE HAVE ERNESTO! (post 75)

:coyote:

[Tenku]

*looks at tracking map*

Does Houston and Galveston really need any extra rain? I mean, they did get flooded so many times during the start of summer. I don't think there's any fronts around to push it more east, is there? Even though now I don't wish a hurricane as much as I did now (as I have to commute to a college town and what's worse is that there's so much construction and potential gameday traffic), we do need to close in on the drought deficit.

Though, I'm only saying this because I'm inland (but kinda sorta prone to flooding).

[sun]

New hurricane worries La. after Katrina (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060827/ap_on_re_us/katrina_new_orleans_12;_ylt=ApE6IQLvF.G9_h2EAExnvjQbLisB;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl)

AP - Sun Aug 27, 6:44 AM ET NEW ORLEANS - What was to have been a weekend of remembrance of Hurricane Katrina's destruction became a weekend of worry as Ernesto strengthened to a hurricane in the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center said Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast. Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it ravaged New Orleans a year ago Tuesday.

At this point, no one knows where, or if it will go into the Gulf...If it does....Perhaps it will go different, or break up, or whatever, as the Coyote said in post 77..Too early to tell..No one really knows yet.....
Perhaps we can pray and hope for the best..but it is now definitely a hurricane, - Hurricane Ernesto.

[tucsoncoyote]

New hurricane worries La. after Katrina (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060827/ap_on_re_us/katrina_new_orleans_12;_ylt=ApE6IQLvF.G9_h2EAExnvjQbLisB;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl)

AP - Sun Aug 27, 6:44 AM ET NEW ORLEANS - What was to have been a weekend of remembrance of Hurricane Katrina's destruction became a weekend of worry as Ernesto strengthened to a hurricane in the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center said Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast. Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it ravaged New Orleans a year ago Tuesday.

At this point, no one knows where, or if it will go into the Gulf...If it does....Perhaps it will go different, or break up, or whatever, as the Coyote said in post 77..Too early to tell..No one really knows yet.....
Perhaps we can pray and hope for the best..but it is now definitely a hurricane, - Hurricane Ernesto.

That's very true Oldtoonguy, and in fact right now It looks like Ernesto is right now from the latest observations and computer modeling is heading on a track Similar to that of Charley of 2004. (and remember that even then most folks here I hope realize and remember that when Charley Made Landfall just south of Tampa Bay Florida in 2004, that that storm started out roughly where Ernesto is now and in the last few hours before landfall went from a modest Category 1 storm (Winds of at least 75-95 mph) to that of a Full Blown Category 4 (Winds of 135-155mph). When Charley made Landfall it's winds were approaching 140 mph... well within the Category 4 limit.

And for those of you who don't understand what I am refering to I'm going to post up The Saffir Simpson Scale for Hurricanes (Which goes from 1 to 5) right here on this post so you can see what size storm Ernesto is. (Right now he's a Minimal Category 1 storm)

but here's The Saffir Simposon Scale for those who wish to follow along:

Category 1 ----- Minimal ----- Sustained Winds of 75-94 mph
Category 2 -------------------Sustained Winds of 95-114 mph
Category 3 -------Major-------Sustained Winds of 115-134 mph
Category 4 -------------------Sustained Winds of 135-154 mph
Category 5 ---Catastrophic----Sustained Winds of 155 mph or greater.

Also each storm has Storm surge (it's a dome of water that comes ashore when the eyewall and eye make landfall, and in fact here are the surge heights for those of you who want to see how high the water will get. This is above normal sea level, and in fact you may have to add waves as high as 30 feet in a full blown category 5 hurricane but this is above normal sea level (Also if a storm comes ashore during High tide, This also will increase these heights to even higher levels (So a Full blown Category 5 coming ashore during High Tide, can push the storm surge well in excess of 30 feet!)

Category 1----------4 to 5 feet
Cagegory 2----------6 to 8 feet
Category 3-----------9 to 12 feet
Category 4 ---------13 to 18 feet
Category 5 ---------Greather then 18 feet

Now one Final fact... A Category 5 storm (Such as Camille in 1969) actually has the power release of approximately 250 Greater then a minimal Category 1 storm like Ernesto and each step up the ladder here represents an Exponential output of energy (what the levels are I don't know exactly, but Just remember that a 5 is 250 times more powerful then a 1.. so potentially a Category 3 is 125 times greater..

But right now Ernesto needs to be seriously Monitored by our TZ.net friends in the Gulf and Florida Regions and proper precautions should be taken..(This is not a test!)

:coyote:

[veemonjosh]

The way Ernesto is moving up toward here in Connecticut is scareing me.

[silverwings]

The way Ernesto is moving up toward here in Connecticut is scareing me.

eh, by the time it gets to us it'll be nothing but rain.

[One Radical Dude]

Ernesto looks like it's going to only remain a tropical storm, once it hits Florida. It could become a minimal hurricane, if it reaches the Carolinas. Still, folks need to be careful out there.

[veemonjosh]

eh, by the time it gets to us it'll be nothing but rain.

That's what they said in 2001 about another hurricane, and I nearly got impaled by a umbrella in that storm.

[sun]

Coyote's graphic is REAL TIME, RIGHT NOW....updated as the hurricane moves...direct link to the Hurricane Center.

So if you want to know where it is at, just look there...You can see where it is now, and where they think it will be tomorrow...Note the date on that graphic is today...that is just an hour ago. (or within four hours depending on report from Hurricane Center.)...

[sun]

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Hurricane John grew into a powerful cyclone off Mexico's Pacific Coast on Tuesday, threatening to trigger dangerous flash floods and mudslides as it neared Acapulco and other tourist resorts.
...The Miami-based National Hurricane Center (http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=National+Hurricane+Center) said John turned into a dangerous storm in just a few hours and was now packing maximum sustained winds of almost 115 mph (185 kph) with higher gusts.
John, upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale which goes up to a top notch of five, is located about 175 miles south of Acapulco and is slowly moving northwest parallel to the coast.

[tucsoncoyote]

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Hurricane John grew into a powerful cyclone off Mexico's Pacific Coast on Tuesday, threatening to trigger dangerous flash floods and mudslides as it neared Acapulco and other tourist resorts.
...The Miami-based National Hurricane Center (http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=National+Hurricane+Center) said John turned into a dangerous storm in just a few hours and was now packing maximum sustained winds of almost 115 mph (185 kph) with higher gusts.
John, upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale which goes up to a top notch of five, is located about 175 miles south of Acapulco and is slowly moving northwest parallel to the coast.

Thanks for the Heads Up there Oldtoon guys and here's John in the Pacific...:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP11/refresh/EP1106W5+gif/234126W_sm.gif

Okay there you go.. More hurricanes I'll update Post 3 tonight or I might just copy and paste the Name list in my next post..

:coyote:

[sun]

Well here is something that we probably will not hear about.... Imagine if this thing were headed for us, or any major land mass...Read this story carefully,not made up..I wonder what coyote will think about this one..I got this off of some sort of Weather Forum......(Yes there are forums devoted just to weather)

"Loke, which formed south of Hawaii last week, has moved across the international dateline. The computers are haveing a terrible time with it. Info is getting confused with a new depression just east of the Philippines.

This storm has been at 155+ mph for several days and looks to be there for at least 3-4 more as it nears Wake island. It was threatening the world record for longevity of a cat 5 yesterday but info is now hard to get so I can only assume that it is now the new record holder or close to it.

This afternoon it was still referred to as a typhoon but with sustained at 160 mph and gusts near 200 mph..I believe it qualifies as a super typhoon." (I looked at the Japanese meterologist report, they are following it too..The people at Wake Island have been evacuated..Don't know more than this now.) It is Ioke, not Loke as the weather forum reported......
... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fc/Super_Typhoon_Ioke_2006.jpg/180px-Super_Typhoon_Ioke_2006.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Super_Typhoon_Ioke_2006.jpg) http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Super_Typhoon_Ioke_2006.jpg)
Typhoon Ioke approaching Wake Island http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/48/TyphoonIoke_06_wpac_loop2a.gif/150px-TyphoonIoke_06_wpac_loop2a.gif (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:TyphoonIoke_06_wpac_loop2a.gif) http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:TyphoonIoke_06_wpac_loop2a.gif)
Typhoon Ioke in the western Pacific
There was a movie called, "The Perfect Storm"...I believe a few years ago..well..here it is for real.............

[tucsoncoyote]

Well Oldtoonguy, I have to admit, looking at Ioke, this is indeed a very well formed typhoon, and in favt this storm is perhaps on the order of Hurricane Gilbert way back in 1980. From the Size I'm guessing Ioke is at least 500 to 600 miles across and with the wind speed being in the Top Category on the Saffir Simpson Scale (Category 5), I would say Wake Islanders are gong to have their world changed very shortly.. and indeed Imagine this storm aiming for places Like, Brownsville, Houston, Galveston, and even the partially repaired New Orleans. This would be a major disaster on a scale only rivaled by Katrina and Camille .. Combined!

I mean if you look at the animated picture, the storm is perfectly concentric and has a very nice upper level outflow, (The storm's almost so perfect, it's downright too perfect even for my liking.

But again I stress that any storm be it Ernesto, John or Ioke, really should be considered as a major threat to humanity. After all Each Storm is unique and Different, Hurricanes and Typhoons are very much like ourselves, each with a unique fickleness and personality.

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Time for another weather update in the Pacific.. While John is doing his number on Mexico, there's a new storm that's formed rather quickly in the pacific as well ...Kristy.. and already she's a full blown Cat 1 hurricane:

Here's the latest on Kristy:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP12/refresh/EP1206W5+gif/210441W_sm.gif

Kristy isn't really a threat to land like John is but still she's a small and compact storm... in fact it's amazing that we got 2 hurricanes in the pacific at the same time.. 3 if you count Ioke...

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

In the Pacific Theater, John and Kristy are dying out (John is giving us folks in the Southwest (With the Exception of El Paso Texas who has already had too much rain), much needed moisture in our area to break a drought.

And in The Atlantic, Ernesto is history.. so already these storms have been struck out of the name list.... But already, a New Depression is forming in the Atlantic and already has been given a new designation... (TD#6) and this one will become Florence within the Next 24 hours more then likely.

Here's the Latest on TD#6....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606W5+gif/204641W_sm.gif
Already Meteorologist at the Tropical Prediction Center are saying this could be potentially the strongest storm of the season, but it's too soon to tell as it seems some of these storms get torn apart by midlevel shear.

But keep an Eye on this one.. Florence could be coming...

:coyote;

[RayChuang]

tucsoncoyote,

If you're seen Mega Disasters on the History Channel, one of their biggest worries is that someday we could have a Category 3 storm that a direct hit on New York City. And the results could be ugly--imagine severe tidal surge damage that could literally wipe out places like Coney Island and Howard Beach and so much rainfall that severe water damage to the NYC subway system is very possible. We just hope Florence isn't this storm... :eek:

[tucsoncoyote]

tucsoncoyote,

If you're seen Mega Disasters on the History Channel, one of their biggest worries is that someday we could have a Category 3 storm that a direct hit on New York City. And the results could be ugly--imagine severe tidal surge damage that could literally wipe out places like Coney Island and Howard Beach and so much rainfall that severe water damage to the NYC subway system is very possible. We just hope Florence isn't this storm... :eek:

Let's Hope not either Ray, and I mean if you look at the track of TD#6 and this particular track (The 38 LI Express) you can see there's similarities here..:

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/track.gif
(The 1938 Long Island Express--

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606W5+gif/204641W_sm.gif
Tropical Depression Six.....

The Tracks are uncannily.. similar...

So this could be trouble.. or it could be nothing.. but Believe me I've seen both It Could Happen Tomorrow, and Mega Disasters (Both of these series do talk about the New York Scenario), and it could happen.. all you need is a small shift to the west in track, and it could happen. After all the LI Express missed by just 70 miles.. that's less then a 3 degree shift in any storm track.

:coyote:

[veemonjosh]

I just hope it isn't EXACTLY like that, or I could be in serious danger of this hurricane.

[tucsoncoyote]

I just hope it isn't EXACTLY like that, or I could be in serious danger of this hurricane.

Well if you take a look at the maps you can see that Florence could track anywhere within that area that is outlined. (Remember the National Hurricane Center uses at least 5 different Models to figure out where this storm is going to go. and not all the models actually concur with each other (The Only time the models did concur was in fact Last year when Katrina came ashore.

but remember the model simulations can put that storm anywhere inside that "Cone of Probability" and the farther you go out in terms of time, the wider the error.

So Please if you do have to keep an eye on this, remember this isn't perfect

So who's up for Wesson Oil?

Edited Note Update: Florence has been created, and according to Forecasts, by Sunday could be a Category 2 storm (95-114 mph sustained winds,and at least an 8 foot storm surge), by Sunday.....

:coyote:

[Tenku]

Ok. We've got Florence, Gordon, and TROPICAL DEPRESSION #8 (probably Helene by the end of the day).

Well, things heated up real quick didn't it?

[tucsoncoyote]

Ok. We've got Florence, Gordon, and TROPICAL DEPRESSION #8 (probably Helene by the end of the day).

Well, things heated up real quick didn't it?

INdeed It is potential to have multiple storms 'active' at the same time and the most I've seen is 4 storms at the same time. Also this is the busiest week of the Season usually as storms are forming and Dying at a rate on average of something like 1 storm every 2 days.

But Let's Put up All three Storms all in One thread.


First there's Florence, Who's Already Hit Bermuda with Hurricane Force Winds (and we're talking 75 mph winds...):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606W5+gif/144649W_sm.gif


Then There is Gordon, and in fact Gordon's Track is very Similar to Florences's :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0706W5+gif/144739W_sm.gif

And Like DJ Tenku pointed out There is yet a Third Storm starting to form and when it gets to 39 mph this will become Helene. and here's TD#8:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0806W5+gif/144924W_sm.gif

Now All Three stoms are following Similar tracks as it seems "The Steering Currents are pushing these storms in a "Train" effect.

But that doesn't mean that Any of these storms should be taken Lightly... After all Helene could go in any direction, as could Gordon, but it's all up to the steering Currents of the Middle Level Atmosphere.

::coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

While Florence has been removed, and Gordon and Helene are now in the Atlantic, in the Pqcific, it's a Different Story...

It seems that We now have Lane, and it's looking hat it might head the way of John... Here's the Latest on Lane...:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP13/refresh/EP1306W5+gif/150106W_sm.gif


Well Hopefully next week I can get stuck indoors and expect to watch this storm dump rain on us... We really need the rainfall.

:coyote:

[jrh31584]

It looks like Helene is going to head the way of its two immediate predecessors. The high over the Atlantic that steers storms westward has been weak this year.

[silverwings]

It looks like Helene is going to head the way of its two immediate predecessors. The high over the Atlantic that steers storms westward has been weak this year.

Which is great. Helen, if the stream doesn't move it, is making a beeline for where I am. I'd rather not experience my first hurricane in my rundown college dorm. :sweat:

[tucsoncoyote]

Which is great. Helen, if the stream doesn't move it, is making a beeline for where I am. I'd rather not experience my first hurricane in my rundown college dorm. :sweat:

Well you might have to wait a bit longer if it does happen. Seems this year has been a rather quiet year in the Atlantic as it seems this year the Bermuda High (The Force that drvies these Storms are in fact Weak so we might get down to the Letter 'M' Before the season ends on Nobember 30th.

But in The Pacific, it's another story as it seems that we have right on the Heels of Lane, (Which is now off the list), Miriam.. and here's the latest on this New Pacific Storm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP14/refresh/EP1406W5+gif/204744W_sm.giff

Mirian is further West Then lane's Track was, and in fact this torm's remanents might give the Desert Southwest a decent soaking when it finally disappates...

but already the Pacific List is Half Exhausted and it's not even the End of September.. and we still got 9 weeks till the Season officially ends.

but until then we still need to keep an eye on things in both locales.

and here's the List and totals so far for Each region (and what the type of sotrms they were (T) is Tropical Storm (H) is Hurricane and storm names that are underlined are/ Were Major Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater) Storms that are still active at this time are in bold.

2006 Atlantic Names:
Alberto(T) Beryl (T) Chris(T),Debby,(T) Ernesto (T), Florence (H), Gordon(H), Helene(H), Issac(H), Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.

Atlantic Totals
9 Named Storms
6 Tropical Storms
3 Hurricanes
1 Major Hurricane (Category 3 or greater) *

2006 Eastern Pacific names:
Aletta (T) , Bud(H) , Carlotta (H) ,Daniel (H), Emilia (T) ,Fabio (T), Gilma (T) Hector(H), Ileana (H), John (H) , Kristy(H), Lane(H) ,Miriam(T) , Norman(T), Olivia(T), Paul(H), Rosa(T), Sergio,Tara, Vicente, Willa, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke.

Pacific Totals
17 Named Storms
8 Tropical Storms*
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or Greater)
--------

So Far Miriam is just a tropical storm, but if it becomes a Hurricane. (Which isn't Likely then these totals will be accurate.)

Edited note: Helene in the Atlantic is this Season's FIRST Major Hurricane.

:coyote:

[silverwings]

Wow. So, in comparison to last year when we had all the atlantic storms, how many pacific storms did we get?

I wonder if the balance just shifted... (actually, I ask because until this thread I had no idea there was a seperate name list for pacific storms...)

[tucsoncoyote]

Wow. So, in comparison to last year when we had all the atlantic storms, how many pacific storms did we get?

I wonder if the balance just shifted... (actually, I ask because until this thread I had no idea there was a seperate name list for pacific storms...)

When you Compare last year to this year it's Like Night and Day...

Last Year in the Pacific there were this many Storms

2005 Pacific Season
15 Named Storms
8 Tropical Stoms
7 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes

2006 Pacirfic Season
17 Named Storms
8 Tropical Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

And the Season is still 8 to 10 weeks from Officially Being Over (On November 30th, 2006... So you can see there's a big difference in the Pacific

For the Atlantic? It too is like Night and Day...

2005 Atlantic Season
27 Named Storms
12 Tropical Storms
15 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

2006 Atlantic Season
9 Named Storms
6 Tropical Storms
3 Hurricanes
1 Major Hurricane*

It's Funny cause this year Professor William Gray (who is a renowned expert in this field at the University of Colorado), and who has an Accuracy of 80% of the time being right for his predictions about Hurricane Seasons in the Atlantic Initially had this year's Atlantic Season set for the entire year to reach 20 Named Storms, of which 10 would get to Hurricane Status and at least 3-4 of them would be Major (Category 3 or greater)...

Yet in the last 8 weeks Mr. Gray has had toned down his totals Dramatically. His Explanation to all this is that the Conditions in the Atlantic Basin have been highly unfavorable for tropical cyclonic formation (Due to a weak Bermuda high and Mid Level Shear. Last year Shear was absent, and the Bermuda High region was strong giving hurricanes a Chance to grow and mature to destructive levels .

Conversely on the Pacific Side, Most storms that do reach hurricane (and even Major Hurricane Strength), usually have warm water to help them grow.. Last year there was no Large pools of water, but this year there is.

So there are a number of Factors to Explain this but these are more then likely the obvious causes. I figure between now and Octiober, if things don't heat up in the next 8 weeks, then the Atlantic Season will end with no more then at most 10 named storms.. and so far none of them have become Major hurricanes. A sort of Double Blessing.

but as for the Pacific? Some places in Baja California and Western Mexico have laready been hit 2 if not 3 times already by Major Storms..

so is this a shift? Possibly.. after all you might have to Look into El Nino and La Nina effects to possibly explain this. other then that no real clue.

*Edited Note : if you missed my Previous Post here it is.. Helene is the Atlantic's First Major hurricane for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. and in fact it just went Category 3...

:coyote:

[One Radical Dude]

Actually, I heard that El Niño is back (or is near making a reappearance). This may actually be great news for many locations in the southern US, especially in the Southwest and in my home state, although it could also create new problems, as well.

[tucsoncoyote]

Actually, I heard that El Niño is back (or is near making a reappearance). This may actually be great news for many locations in the southern US, especially in the Southwest and in my home state, although it could also create new problems, as well.

Well El Nino this year might be the answer to the 64 dollar question when it comes to the hurricane count. I've noted over the last 20 years that whenever there is an El Nino Event in the Pacific, usually the Hurricane Count in the Pacific goes Ballistic and you get a number of Storms. Conversely in the Atlantic, you get a Drop in the Number of Storms (Even Severe Storms..)

Conversely when you get El Nino's Opposite Counterpart, La Nena, then you get the Opposite effect. (Atlantic Hurricanes increase and pacific Decrease.)

what's the Difference between last year and this year? last year was according to Climatologists, a 'La Nena' Event, while this year it's El Nino...

So what does this mean for the Hurricanes? El Nino gives the Pacific more hurricanes and Less Atlantic Storms.

also it means Indeed for the south and Southwest a more abundant Rainfall. And I can attest to our Monsoonal records this year that we here in Tucson have had a "Heavier then Normal" rainfall for the Monsoon

For Example in a Typical Monsoon in tucson (which Starts on July 3rd on Average) we get during June-September a total of just 6.06 inches of Rain (which in fact is half (50$) of our Normal Rainfall...

Now this season, (2006), Our Monsoon started on June 28th, and that was some 5 days ahead of the average. but what is surprising here is the amount of rain we've had in the June-September run.. in fact up to September 14th (this last Thursday), we have had a total rainfall amount of 10.20 inches of rain some 40% more then normal for the season... But over the last 5 seasons we've been either near or well below normal for the season.. and this ha put us in a Drought setup.

But when you go back over records of the Tucson Monsoon, (http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon.php) you see a pattern.. in 1983, when we had an El Nino, we had one of the wettest on record for Monsoons (10.50 inches) and before that the rainiest year for the monsoon since records were kept was in 1954. when 13.84 Inches (Almost 1 full year of Rainfall) Fell in the entire 60-90 day monsoon season.

So it makes me wonder if we are changing the climate, or if the El nino / La Nena Effect is having an actual part on this.

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

well here comes Issac..and it's another miss at the US..
Here's the latest on Issac:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0906W5+gif/204533W_sm.gif

Issac it appears will pose no threat to the US and in fact might only cause slight problems for Canad.. but there will be high surf more then likely with this storm

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Back into the Pacific again and right now we got one tropical storm and one depression that will more then likely become a storm.

First off is Norman.. (Stormin' Norman I like to call this one): and It looks like Norman is going to impact Arizona (when it dies) with all this lovely moisture..

Here's the Latest on Norman:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP15/refresh/EP1506W5+gif/024553W_sm.gif


Then there's Tropical Depression 16 E..(The sixteenth Depression of the Pacific Storm season... and it could strengthen into Tropical Storm Olivia..

and tuess where it's headed... Yep the same place (or pretty darn Close to it) where Norman is headed..

Here's 16 E.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP16/refresh/EP1606W5+gif/024556W_sm.gif


so Two new storms potentially and we have 7 weeks till the end of the season on November 30th... but at least the Atlantic is being quiet!

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Time for Hurricane #9 in the Pacific and this one is Name (*Grins*) Paul...

and Paul is not being a bit of a Slouch.. with Sustained winds of 100 MPH..which makes this a Category 2 storm..(this storm could become the Pacific's 6th Major Hurricane this 2006 season...

Here's the Latest on Paul :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP17/refresh/EP1706W5+gif/124726W_sm.gif

Paul could impact Texas by Midweek, dumping heavy rains on West Texas, and in fact that's something El Paso Texas Doesn't need.. However there could be rain also falling here in Arizona.. but as of the Moment the track is kind of erratic.

But this could be a record year for Major Hurricanes in the East Pacific...

:coyote:

[tucsoncoyote]

Well here it is... November 30th 2006, the Official END of the hurricane Season... and this year.. The Eastern Coast of the United states got off way easier then last year...(2005)

In all just 9 named storms... 2 tropical storms hit the US and luckily for all of us, nothing of a hurricane even came close.. So in the end, 2006 turned out to be a lucky year..

In the Pacific However, thanks to El Nino, this year's Hurricane Season was a bit more dramatic... 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes..

and elsewhere in the world, some of these hurricanes (Typhoons) really have been making life miserable for Japan, the Phillipines, and even China..

so all in all we dodged a bullet this year.. but will next year be like this year? or will it revert to what it was in 2004 and 2005? It's hard to say, but come June 1st 2007? I'll be back here writing the next in a long list of Years... and let's hope.. just hope that 2007 will be like this year..

but let's hear some thoughts about what you feel this year's hurricane season (and the ones in 2004 and 2005) have taught us..

Your thoughts on this folks..

and yes after December 31st 2006, this will be a "Dead thread"...

but in the end, The 2007 season is just 7 months away...

:coyote: